Pensions: Why does François Bayrou's fall despite the failure of the conclave seem unlikely?

At Matignon, where he settled down a little over six months ago, François Bayrou doesn't have the luxury of certainty. Such is the fate of a Prime Minister who must manage without an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The adventure could end abruptly, as Michel Barnier can attest.

Fortunately for his successor, certain omens are likely to reassure the Béarnais, who could face a new motion of censure very soon, the eighth since his debut at the head of the government, without being worried.

Certainly, the pressure is mounting on his shoulders. His pension conclave, which began at the end of February with the promise to renegotiate the Borne reform—a pledge for the Socialists in exchange for their non-censorship of the budget texts—has seriously taken a hit. The final meeting, this Monday, resulted in a lack of agreement , with unions and employers blaming each other for this impasse.

While the Prime Minister is looking for a way out, by inviting the various organisations to Matignon this Tuesday to find a "way through", the socialists are taking up arms .

Accusing François Bayrou of responsibility for the failure of the conclave, they are calling above all for Parliament to have the final say, whether or not the social partners agree. They are also calling for the Prime Minister to be reminded of his past commitments, as the president of the Socialist Party (PS) deputies, Boris Vallaud, did this Tuesday afternoon when he announced that he was tabling a motion of censure .

Unaligned with the budget texts, the left as a whole will unite to try to overthrow the government, even if there is no guarantee that the socialists will all speak with one voice after a congress which divided the PS into two very distinct camps.

The fact remains that the Prime Minister's fate does not depend solely on this issue. Indeed, without the votes of the far right, the motion cannot be adopted. Therefore, assuming that the left unites to overthrow François Bayrou, what would the troops of Marine Le Pen and those of her ally Éric Ciotti do ?

The official response is not yet known. But the signs are clear . When asked about potential censorship, Marine Le Pen expressed skepticism on RMC, saying it could amount to "another Prime Minister chosen by Emmanuel Macron who will not put the pension law on the agenda any further."

And the leader of the RN deputies distanced herself from this initiative: "It comes as a bolt from the blue, we have the impression that the Socialist Party absolutely wants to prove that it is still left-wing."

The issue is a sensitive one for the far-right party. A government overthrow could lead to another dissolution of Emmanuel Macron, almost a year before the last legislative elections.

However, Marine Le Pen will not be able to take part in this election, following her conviction for embezzlement of public funds, at first instance, to a sentence of ineligibility with provisional execution in the context of the trial of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front.

"We're not going to say that we no longer hold Bayrou's future in our hands, but frankly... If he falls, I think the president will be dissolved in July. And then it's a disaster without Marine," admitted an RN elected official last April to BFMTV .

However, the far-right party suggests it could take action during the 2026 budget review in the fall. "The budget comes very quickly. However, the budget is the determination of the country's economic policy. I don't think we're going to agree on that," warned Marine Le Pen.

In the meantime, François Bayrou - who intends to present the "broad guidelines" of his budget by July 14 - has a good chance of extending his stay at Matignon.