Politics. Confidence vote on September 8: Bayrou chooses his exit date

Taking risks so that the French understand that this is serious. François Bayrou , aware that his government has no chance of obtaining a majority to pass a budget with nearly 44 billion in savings, is playing his all.

Cornered, he is calling for a vote of confidence , extremely risky, in the National Assembly for September 8. He announced it this Monday during a back-to-school press conference , and in front of his entire government, which could therefore fall in two weeks. A government warned only a few minutes before the official announcement.

"Clarification is needed," the Prime Minister justified, weighing his words. The term is not neutral: it echoes the one Emmanuel Macron used to justify the dissolution decided on June 9, 2024, the evening of the European elections. It therefore has connotations, and not in a positive way, in the ears of the French.

The "clarification," according to François Bayrou, will be the following: "Is there a national emergency to rebalance our public accounts and escape the curse of debt reduction?" He thus takes up one of the themes that make up his political DNA, that of debt and the "immediate danger" that it represents.

He had already raised the alarm during his last press conference on July 15 , where he gave the guidelines for his budget, without causing the expected upsurge in the country. The latter was then in the holidays and took badly the possibility of seeing two public holidays disappear .

"The moment is worrying and therefore decisive," the head of government argued more gravely, speaking less to the parliamentarians who will decide his fate, than to the French people. "Clarification is a condition for our country to regain its sense of self," added Bayrou, who has the "unshakeable" conviction that "the French will become aware of the gravity of the situation."

Never before has a government before François Bayrou's sought a vote of confidence in Parliament without having a majority. This is therefore historic. This dramatization aims to make each MP face up to their responsibilities in the face of the risk of the country's over-indebtedness.

"The government is making its own decisions. Parliament will have the decision in its hands on September 8," the Prime Minister reminded. In two weeks, if a majority of parliamentarians do not grant him confidence, the Bayrou government will fall.

The likelihood of this being the case is high, if not almost certain. The most radical benches of the Assembly, La France Insoumise (71 deputies) and the National Rally (123 elected representatives), immediately announced that they would not vote for confidence. This will also be the case for almost all elected representatives from left-wing groups.

The central bloc and Les Républicains, assuming they all vote for confidence, are not enough to save the government. "He is taking a major political step that France so desperately needs," reacted Marc Fesneau, president of the Les Démocrates group, close to the Prime Minister.

François Bayrou is therefore rushing the date of his release, a priori hoping that it will create an electroshock in society. The choice of September 8, two days before the "Block Everything" day, notably supported by La France Insoumise, is not neutral.

"I think that lucidity can prevail," the Prime Minister bravadoes, often referring to Pierre Mendès France, who was forced to leave power after being abandoned by the deputies. Like Mendès, he hopes that history will vindicate him for having warned of the danger of debt. Deep down, he no doubt feels the satisfaction of having lasted longer at Matignon than his mentor.