The fragmentation of the Iranian opposition prevents it from being a “credible” alternative to the mullahs

The Iranian opposition, both inside the country and in exile, encompasses a wide range of factions, from left-wing to right-wing movements, including monarchist and Marxist groups. In recent years, it has attempted to form a coalition against the ruling regime, notably through the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement, but these efforts have been unsuccessful.

Today, the ideological and political divisions that characterize this plural opposition remain its main Achilles heel and compromise, among other factors, the emergence of an alternative political project to the Islamic Republic, in power since 1979, according to Iranian analysts and media.

"The lack of a credible and consensual alternative" within a "very fragmented and dispersed" opposition constitutes a fundamental challenge to the idea of ​​regime change, underlines Akhbar Rooz, an opposition media outlet .

"This situation makes the idea of ​​regime change questionable in the eyes of decision-makers, particularly in Israel and the United States, because it recalls the failed experiences of Afghanistan and Iraq," he adds.

While more and more voices are now calling for regime change, one of the first fault lines, which became apparent from the start of the attacks on June 13, is the relationship with Israel.

Some opponents believe that a political transition must be led from within, even if it means going through the moderate wing of the Islamic regime. Other groups fully supported the Israeli offensive, calling for the fall of the current government.