Vote of confidence: our simulator to find out if François Bayrou can avoid the fall or not

François Bayrou's days at Matignon appear numbered. The Prime Minister announced on Monday, August 25 , that he will "take responsibility for his government" before the National Assembly on Monday, September 8, convened in extraordinary session. By requesting a vote of confidence to "clarify" the political situation before even engaging in budget discussions, however, he could hasten his downfall.

Following the press conference in Pau – which has already avoided eight motions of censure – on Monday, August 25, most political parties took a position: the National Rally and their Ciottist allies in the UDR, La France Insoumise, the French Communist Party, and the Ecologists have already made it known that they will not vote for confidence on September 8. It remains to be seen whether abstentions could save the Prime Minister's neck.

Framed by Article 49.1 of the Constitution , the vote of confidence requires the Prime Minister to obtain the majority of votes cast – therefore, according to the number of deputies present and participating in the vote. Ultimately, to save his head, he simply needs to collect more votes for than votes against, even without reaching the absolute majority of 289 votes.

Libération invites you to form your own coalitions using its simulator:

But even if all the deputies of the fragile "common base" (Ensemble, Horizons, LR and Mouvement Démocrate) voted in his favor, François Bayrou would only obtain 210 votes. Liot's centrists have around twenty seats.

François Bayrou would then necessarily need the support of PS parliamentarians, who have around sixty votes. The leader of the Socialists, Olivier Faure, however, announced on Monday evening that his troops "will not vote confidence in the Prime Minister." This, in the current state of affairs, makes his fall inevitable.

Update: Monday, August 25 at 8:17 p.m., with the addition of Olivier Faure's statement.