What if the elected officials had to elect a new mayor in La Seyne?

She has weathered some storms since her election in June 2020; mostly internal and political. But the latest one - this time a legal one - could abruptly end Nathalie Bicais' term as mayor of La Seyne. It is Friday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. that the Toulon Criminal Court - where she appeared Thursday, April 24 alongside her chief of staff Christophe Riqueau and the former director general of city services Laurent Régné, also implicated in this trial for suspected conflicts of interest - will deliver its decision.

In the event of a conviction, the mayor would naturally have the possibility of appealing. But among the heavy demands of the prosecution (1), one, if accepted by the court, would immediately put an end to her mandate: "provisional execution" of the ineligibility sentence, that is to say its immediate application.

A ten-month mandate and a campaign to lead

What would happen then? Initially, First Deputy Mayor Christine Sinquin would automatically be required to assume the role of interim mayor. But not necessarily later. It would be up to her to quickly convene the municipal council, which would then be responsible for electing from among its members the new mayor who would lead the city until the universal suffrage elections of March 2026.

Who, then, would be a candidate to "do the job" for ten months? Knowing that there will be, at the same time, a tough election campaign to wage. A campaign that has already begun in all camps but which would naturally take a new turn if Nathalie Bicais were unable to attend.

The distribution of forces

In the election that could take place within the La Seyne municipal council if Nathalie Bicais is immediately ineligible, every vote will count. Especially since the composition of the assembly has been particularly turbulent for five years. Currently, of the forty-nine seats on the municipal council, the mayor's team holds twenty-eight and the opposition twenty-one.

For the record, the right-wing "coalition" list led by Nathalie Bicais in 2020 obtained thirty-six elected representatives. But many of them have since gone into dissidence; while former opponents - elected on the other right-wing list led by Sandra Torres and on the left-wing list of Marc Vuillemot - have joined the majority. Thus, today, the municipal opposition is composed of: fifteen elected representatives from the victorious 2020 coalition - including her former deputies Jean-Pierre Colin and Guillaume Capobianco -, four from left-wing parties and two from the National Rally.

Who are the potential candidates?

Until the court has rendered its decision, no potential candidate is moving forward in the open, whether in the majority or the opposition.

In the mayor's inner circle, few profiles stand out. And according to some, serious discussions are only just beginning, as Nathalie Bicais refused to consider a resignation forced by the courts. Her first deputy, Christine Sinquin, appears the most legitimate; and also benefits from a rather consensual profile. But it is rumored that Jo Minitti, the oldest member of the assembly, who has navigated local political life for twenty-five years, would also like to take on the role of majority candidate. The challenge, for both, would be to retain all the votes of this heterogeneous team, which is not a given in advance.

The dissident group is also expected to present a candidate, unsurprisingly. It remains to be seen which candidate would be able to "recover" votes from the current majority. And what would be the attitude of the elected representatives of the left (four in the majority, four in the opposition) and the National Rally? The number of votes required to be elected will depend on the number of candidates and voters.

1. Against Nathalie Bicais, the prosecution requested a two-year suspended prison sentence, a €30,000 fine, a five-year ban on holding public office, and a five-year ineligibility period, with provisional enforcement (i.e., applicable even in the event of an appeal). Against Christophe Riqueau: an eighteen-month suspended prison sentence, a €50,000 fine, and a five-year ban on holding public office, with provisional enforcement. Against Laurent Régné: a six-month suspended prison sentence, a €5,000 fine, and a two-year ineligibility period, with no immediate enforcement of the sentence in the event of an appeal.

2. Three current opposition elected officials and one newcomer have already announced their candidacy for the March 2026 municipal elections: Guillaume Capobianco, Dorian Munoz, Christophe Peurière and Frédéric Dailleau.