What majority for the future government? Try out different scenarios with our simulator

Unsurprisingly, the vote of confidence sought by Prime Minister François Bayrou precipitated his downfall. President Emmanuel Macron must now identify a prime minister capable of rallying enough deputies in the National Assembly to avoid a permanent deadlock.

Balance seems difficult to achieve with a highly fragmented Palais-Bourbon: 11 groups have sat there since the 2024 legislative elections; a record under the ^Fifth Republic. In any case, lacking a majority in the Chamber, Mr. Bayrou's successors and his ministers will have no choice but to govern through alliances. To achieve a majority, it will be necessary to unite 288 deputies – compared to the usual 289, with three seats vacant.

Which coalitions would prevent the blockage? Is an agreement between the Socialist Party, the central bloc, and the Republicans possible? Conversely, which groups are likely to rally to censure the government? Thanks to our simulator, you can freely imagine various alliance scenarios. You have the possibility to test block votes by group, but also to consider splits within political parties, by removing votes with the "-" button.