ACC Best Case, Worst Case Scenarios for 2025: Rude welcome coming for Bill Belichick? Miami finally makes CFP?
Every fanbase is wondering how many games their team will win this upcoming season, but any win total projection comes with a range of outcomes. So as we begin to look ahead to 2025, we're focusing on just how good -- or bad -- things could go for every team.
It was certainly tempting to detail how each team's best-case scenario, technically, is 12-0 -- and the worst case is 0-12 -- our hope is to identify a somewhat more realistic range of possibilities. We are too close to the start of the season for that brand of fan fiction, with media days and expert picks set to hit high gear in just a couple of weeks.
The ACC features a couple of teams with College Football Playoff aspirations, but also plenty of squads that could be straddling the line for bowl eligibility. With a couple new coaches -- including Bill Belichick -- and plenty of programs under pressure, this exercise explores the extremes for our expectations in the fall.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Boston CollegeOdds to win conference: +7000
Best case 7-5: The Eagles tap into some upset magic by taking down at least one of their high-profile visitors, as Clemson, Notre Dame and SMU all make the trip to Chestnut Hill in the final two months of the season. The team still takes some lumps, but Bill O'Brien shows his ability to maximize strengths and win games at the margins for the second year in a row.
Worst case 3-9: The quarterback position never gets settled, the ground game can't replace last year's production and the team takes a step back defensively on account of losing multiple all-conference players on the line -- including ACC Defensive Player of the Year Donovan Ezeiruaku. The team wins when it should, but comes up short in too many coin-flip games to make a bowl.
CalOdds to win conference: +13000
Best case 8-4: Cal becomes a transfer portal success story, as more than three dozen new additions brought in to replace a mass exodus of talent gel together in a make-or-break season for Justin Wilcox. Early success in the nonconference schedule helps the group build confidence for an ACC slate that includes some tricky cross-country travel in the middle of the season.
Worst case 4-8: The Bears lose a couple of games they are favored to win early in the season and with some tougher tests looming, we see coach hot seat drama become a primary storyline. Because this team is well-coached, they rally for some key wins, but a four-win season could lead to a change in Berkley.
ClemsonOdds to win conference: +120
Best case 12-0: An opening win against LSU sets the tone for an absolute war machine year, as Dabo Swinney's Tigers celebrate the 10th anniversary of their first CFP appearance with their eighth playoff march. Early projections that point to a handful of first-round NFL Draft picks for the Tigers are proven correct as Cade Klubnik stars with a stellar group of receivers (a couple of whom aren't draft eligible until 2027) and the defense shines under the leadership of new defensive coordinator Tom Allen.
Worst case 9-3: Offseason hype falls flat. Clemson wins a lot of games, but gets tripped up enough to limit any chance of making the CFP as an at-large team. The Tigers are good enough to get off the bus, tie their shoes and win most of the games on their schedule but the season ends with little satisfaction as the they come up short in the biggest games of the year.
DukeOdds to win conference: +2600
Best case 9-3: Darian Mensah proves to be one of the top quarterbacks in the ACC and the defense that spent much of last season dragging opponents into the sewer gives the Blue Devils a chance in nearly every game. This requires Duke to be a team of road warriors with a challenging travel schedule, but Manny Diaz has built this program's identity as one that wins with details as evidenced by last year's 6-1 showing in one-score games.
Worst case 5-7: The regression monster hits. Not only is winning that many one-score games not sustainable, but the offense struggles after the loss of so many valuable veterans at the skill positions. The defense is solid enough to give Duke a chance to make a bowl game deep into the season, but logging those final wins against teams like UConn, Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest is tougher if the Blue Devils don't have a threatening offense.
Odds to win conference: +2900
Best case 9-3: The Seminoles bounce back from one of the most embarrassing seasons in program history with a strong showing to steady the ship. With a schedule that includes Clemson, Alabama, Florida and Miami, running the table seems unlikely. But a win in at least one of those games offers encouragement for the future. Mike Norvell's coordinator changes pay off with big improvements on both sides of the ball, and unlike last year, the portal additions are a difference maker in the positive sense -- especially at quarterback.
Worst case 5-7: Portal evaluations fall short of expectations for a second straight year, and while the team looks good against East Texas A&M and Kent State early in the season, some warts are exposed in the ACC schedule. Failing to make a bowl brings about talk of a coaching change. That pressure would certainly weigh on the team heading into tightly-contested games against Virginia Tech and at NC State.
Georgia TechOdds to win conference: +1400
Best case 9-3: The Yellow Jackets play a big role in the ACC Championship race with an impressive stack of conference wins. Whether Georgia Tech's 9-3 will be good enough for at-large contention in the CFP comes down to its games against Clemson (in September) and Georgia (in November), but even flirting with nine wins requires another strong year from the quarterback position and more clutch performances in close games.
Worst case 5-7: Georgia Tech faces a six-game stretch -- from Virginia Tech on Oct. 11 to Pitt on Nov. 22 -- where each matchup could be a one-score game based on current projections. If the Yellow Jackets go 2-4 during that run, they could enter the final week of the season needing a win just to reach bowl eligibility, rather than trying to solidify a playoff case.
LouisvilleOdds to win conference: +750
Best case 10-2: Jeff Brohm's transfer portal evaluations hit again and the Cardinals are one of the league's top teams for the third year in a row. The schedule is tough with games against all the other top teams (Clemson, Miami, SMU) but Louisville wins enough to have a solid chance at the CFP either as an ACC Champion or even as an at-large contender.
Worst case 7-5: Miller Moss never settles in as the plug-and-play quarterback many expect, and a team stitched together with several portal-heavy classes struggles in road environments against quality teams. Louisville only plays four true road games but they are at Pitt, Miami, Virginia Tech and SMU. If Louisville is going to contend for the ACC, it will need to get it done away from Cardinals Stadium.
MiamiOdds to win conference: +370
Best case 11-1: Carson Beck returns to full health and assumes the NFL-ready form he displayed before the injury in a quarterback-friendly offense that helped propel Cam Ward to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. New coordinator Corey Heatherman helps Miami's defense limit explosive plays and the Hurricanes make their first-ever appearance in the CFP.
Worst case 8-4: The Hurricanes not only fail to capitalize on the big moments against Notre Dame and SMU, but drop a couple more games to leave Miami feeling wholly unsatisfied given the level of talent on this roster. It speaks to the recruiting efforts of this staff that 8-4 is a floor projection, but for a program that has not hit its ceiling in a while Miami is much more focused on maximizing what it's got in house.
North CarolinaOdds to win conference: +4200
Best case 9-3: Bill Belichick stares down one of the most manageable schedules in the conference and takes advantage, bringing together a roster of nearly 70-plus new additions (transfer portal and recruiting class) and getting them on the same page to play winning football. The Tar Heels' plan to build the roster from the lines of scrimmage out results in a ball control style where physicality leads the way, giving them an advantage over nearly every non-Clemson team on the conference schedule.
Worst case 5-7: An uncertain quarterback situation bleeds into the season and the inability to threaten opponents with offensive explosiveness puts North Carolina in way too many one-score games. Inexperience at the college level causes some communication issues between the coaching staff and the team, and when adversity hits, a locker room full of new faces does not respond positively.
NC StateOdds to win conference: +4200
Best case 9-3: Quarterback CJ Bailey takes the next step in his development and guides an offense with plenty of returning talent into the top tier of the ACC. The Wolfpack aren't able to pull off stunning upsets on the road against Notre Dame and Miami, but benefit from home cooking with key coin-flip games like Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina all being in Carter-Finley Stadium.
Worst case: 4-8: A defense that took a big step back in 2024 -- giving up 30.2 points per game after allowing less than 21 in three straight seasons -- does not return to form. In fact, it becomes a liability. Mid- and late-season coin-flip games keep breaking the other way and it brings some deep frustration to the forefront for a fan base that saw three home losses last year and a bowl defeat to in-state foe ECU.
PittOdds to win conference: +4100
Best case 8-4: Year 2 for Kade Bell results in an offense that is faster and more prolific, aided in part by better injury luck along the offensive line. Desmond Reid emerges as one of the top running backs in the country and the schedule sets up for more midseason excitement with most of the winnable games in September and October.
Worst case: 4-8: The injury bug bites again, and the bad vibes from last season's 0-6 finish linger as Pitt sees things slip away through a six-game midseason grind where nearly every game could be a one-score point spread at kickoff. The inability to stack wins prior to late November paints a bleak scene and upset attempts against Notre Dame and Miami fall short.
SMUOdds to win conference: +850
Best case 11-1: The Mustangs prove that they are more than a one-year story and back up last season's success with another College Football Playoff run. Kevin Jennings shakes off the Penn State game with a fast start in nonconference play against Baylor and TCU, riding that momentum into the meat of the schedule to emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the country.
Worst case 7-5: The Mustangs are able to overwhelm the lesser opponents with tempo and offensive prowess, but fail to get the better of the best teams. With Clemson, Miami and Louisville all on the ACC slate and nonconference battles against a pair of formidable Big 12 teams, SMU is better than its record, but won't contend for a major bowl game.
SyracuseOdds to win conference: +6000
Best case 7-5: The portal ins and outs pay off for Fran Brown as beefing up the lines of scrimmage allows Syracuse to endure a massive loss of talent from last year's 10-win team. Quarterback Steve Angeli hits the ground running after a spring portal move from Notre Dame and the offense once again stresses opponents with the passing attack. A tough schedule means more losses than 2024, but the new additions help power another bowl appearance.
Worst case 4-8: One year after enjoying one of the most manageable schedules in the ACC, the Orange are gobbled up by one of the toughest slates in the conference. Not only does Syracuse play the trio of Clemson, SMU and Miami all on the road but they also face Notre Dame in South Bend and Tennessee in a neutral site. The grind wears down the team, and some of the coin-flip home games against Pitt, North Carolina and Boston College break the other way.
StanfordOdds to win conference: +30000
Best case 6-6: Frank Reich pulls off an absolute miracle, uniting the locker room for a one-year run and the Cardinal play for pride all the way to bowl eligibility. The path requires taking advantage of other teams travel concerns, winning home games against the likes of Boston College, Florida State and Pitt. But it also probably requires a stunning upset as Stanford has five potential preseason top-25 teams on the schedule.
Worst case: 2-10: All of the surrounding issues -- like coaches with an uncertain future and players considering whether they want to stay with the program -- pile up, leading to a collapse in the second half of the season. Motivation should not be an issue early with some winnable games in September but if there is any wavering in terms of focus there might not be a win after Oct. 1.
VirginiaOdds to win conference: +11000
Best case 7-5: A breakthrough season for Tony Elliott rejuvenates confidence in his tenure as the Wahoos reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2021. Virginia hit the portal hard to bring in players with some experience -- sixth-year quarterback Chandler Morris being the poster child for this -- that can help set the tone for a winning season. It also helps that the team won't face Clemson, Miami or SMU in conference play and gets five of the first seven games at home as the new additions get settled in.
Worst case 4-8: The new talent doesn't gel, Virginia drops a couple games they shouldn't early in the season and suddenly questions about the future of the program start to be a distraction as the team. The talent level is too high to see Virginia getting out-classed by this ACC schedule, but there's no guaranteed wins, either. Sometimes those tough, close losses can hurt a team's psyche just as much a blowout.
Virginia TechOdds to win conference: +4500
Best case 9-3: Kyron Drones puts together his best season yet, and the hire of new offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery unlocks that extra step the Hokies offense needed to get over the hump. Virginia Tech's 0-5 record in one-score games last season regresses back to the average and the absence of Clemson and SMU on the ACC schedule allows the Hokies to be a player in the conference title race.
Worst case 5-7: The team goes 0-2 against the SEC in the first two weeks of the season and picks up another conference loss or two by mid-October, setting the stage for a pressure-packed second half of the season against a schedule that includes Louisville, Miami and a trip to Florida State. The talent on the roster keeps the group competitive throughout, but the year finishes with that familiar feeling that Hokies should have been a couple wins better given their talent.
Wake ForestOdds to win conference: +30000
Best case 6-6: Jake Dickert gets dynamic playmaking at the quarterback position from either Deshawn Purdie or Robby Ashford, and Demond Claiborne proves to be one of the most reliable running backs in the ACC. Early season wins help pad the win total and build confidence before the meat of the schedule takes over. Then, a home win against Delaware in November provides the new head coach his moment to celebrate leading the program back into the postseason for the first time since 2022.
Worst case 3-9: The Demon Deacons win the games they should (Kennesaw State, Western Carolina, Delaware) but fall short, to varying degrees, against the rest of its schedule. Roster turnover brings some depth issues to light later in the year, and what appeared to be a battle between two strong options turns into a quarterback-by-committee season that sparks inconsistency.
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