Texas football 2025: Win total, CFP outlook and Arch Manning's moment to deliver

Texas very well could be the preseason No. 1 team when the first polls are dropped in August. After back-to-back appearances in the College Football Playoff semifinals, the Longhorns enter 2025 with higher expectations -- and a new era -- as beloved, blue-chip quarterback Arch Manning now takes the reins. Expert Eric Henry of Horns247 joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to preview expectations for Texas this fall.

What are the stakes for Texas in 2025?

A lot rides on whether Arch Manning lives up to the immense expectations that have followed him since before he even arrived on campus in Austin. With a national title-caliber roster and real momentum behind them, Texas enters the 2025 season knowing that anything short of another deep playoff run could feel like a major letdown.

"When you talk about expectations for me, I think College Football Playoff or bust is very fair considering the standard that has been set by Steve Sarkisian and Co. over the last few years," Henry said. "The floor in my mind, and I've kind of toyed around with this -- I think the floor is nine wins, honestly, the way this schedule shakes out. I think the ceiling during the regular season would be one loss."

And with Manning at the helm, the supporting cast around him might ultimately be what separates Texas from the rest of the national title contenders.

Breakout player everybody needs to know

Former five-star prospect and Texas wideout Ryan Wingo didn't get the same volume of targets as other star freshmen like Jeremiah Smith or Ryan Williams did last season. But that's only because he shared the field with proven weapons in the Longhorns' offense.

"I am very high on Ryan Wingo," Henry said. "If Ryan Wingo saw the number of targets that those two guys had, he would have had similar numbers. So Texas has that type of stud receiver on their roster."

Wingo caught 29 passes for 472 yards and two touchdowns last season, while also adding 100 yards on just five carries. Despite ranking seventh on the team in targets (55), he flashed big-play potential in limited opportunities. With a larger role in 2025 -- and a five-star quarterback like Arch Manning delivering the ball -- Wingo is poised to emerge as one of the nation's most dynamic playmakers.

Win total outlook

The projected win total for Texas is 9.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That line reflects the difficulty of a schedule that opens with one of the biggest games of the entire 2025 regular season -- a trip to Ohio State in Week 1 for a rematch of last year's College Football Playoff semifinal. Three more non-conference games lead into October, where the Longhorns won't play a single game in Austin: at Florida, Oklahoma (Dallas), at Kentucky and at Mississippi State.

"I think [the October stretch] has the opportunity to really make or break their season," Henry said. Remember, Henry thinks Texas' floor is nine wins.

If Texas can emerge from that road-heavy October with just one loss -- or run the table -- it would put the Longhorns in strong position for another appearance in the SEC Championship Game.

Horns247 has one of the most experienced journalists in the Texas market in Chip Brown. The site has broken countless stories over the last two decades. Newcomer Eric Henry has already made his presence felt in the market, and Hank South and Jordan Scruggs have Longhorns recruiting on lockdown. Sign up for a VIP membership now and join the conversation on The Flagship!