If we don't have children anymore it's because we can't, not (just) because we don't want to

Fewer and fewer children are being born and it is not just an Italian problem. In the last 50 years, the global fertility rate has halved : if in the 1960s we were talking about 5 children per woman, today we are talking about 2.2 children per woman. And the forecasts are not rosy: according to the UN World Fertility Report 2024 , the expected value for 2100 is 1.8 children - below the replacement level . In reality, the document highlights how over 55% of countries - more than two-thirds of the world's population - already have a fertility rate below the replacement level: this means that the average number of children per woman is lower than the value needed for a population to remain stable in the long term.

But why aren't we having more children? Is it really a choice? Although the blame is often placed on women and the younger generations, accused of selfishness or individualism, a survey by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reports that alarming percentages of the global population want to have children, but are unable to fulfill this desire for parenthood.

According to data collected by UNFPA, about 20% of adults of reproductive age believe they cannot have the number of children they want and for 39% financial limitations have affected or will affect their ability to achieve the desired family size. And women's choice not to have children in many cases does not come from a lack of desire for motherhood, but rather from an unequal division of domestic and care work that requires them to choose between family and career.

Global Fertility Rates in Decline: Africa Leads the World, But It's Not Enough

With a fertility rate of 2.2 - just above the replacement level of 2.1 - and a daunting projection of 1.8 by 2100, the decline of the global population seems certain. However, the geographical differences on this issue are profound. In more than half of the countries and areas (55%), and therefore for more than two-thirds of the global population, the fertility level is below 2.1 births per woman. This problem affects some of the world's most populous nations, such as India, China, the United States of America, Brazil and the Russian Federation , and cuts across all regions and income groups. However, 17% of the countries and areas are above the replacement level, but only for now: in fact, it is expected that within the next 30 years these areas, which include Indonesia and Bangladesh, will have a fertility rate below 2.1.

In more than one country and one area in 10 globally, fertility is now below 1.4 births per woman. According to data from the World Population Review, updated to 2024, the lowest rate overall is that of Taiwan , followed by South Korea and Singapore . Italy is the seventh country in the world with the lowest rate ( 1.26 ), second in Europe only to Ukraine (1.22), where fertility has also decreased as a result of the ongoing conflict.

Leading the globe is the African continent , where the rate is greater than 2.1 everywhere and where the most fertile countries in the world are located: Niger (6.64), Angola (5.7), Democratic Republic of Congo (5.49), Mali (5.35), Benin (5.34), Chad (5.24), Uganda (5.17). You have to get to 17th position in this ranking to leave the continent and move to Asia, with Afghanistan (4.43).

However, it is important to note that fertility has also declined in countries with higher birth rates. Today, fertility levels are equal to or higher than 2.1 births per woman in 45% of countries and areas globally, which are home to about a third of the world's population. While today one in 10 countries globally has a fertility level equal to or higher than 4, in 1994 it was 4 in 10 countries. And according to UNFPA data, this proportion will decline further in the coming years.

Why aren't there more children? The weight of the economy and the fears of the future of the young generations

To understand the origins of the fertility crisis, UNFPA and YouGov conducted a survey in 14 countries, asking people if they are having the family they want. And what they found is that “the most important reproductive decision a human being can make – when, if and with whom to have a child – is being undermined.” An alarming percentage of adults are failing to realize their intentions of parenthood.

The report says that about 20 percent of adults of reproductive age think they will not be able to have as many children as they want. “When policymakers and commentators raise the alarm about fertility rates , they often assume that people are having children because they want to, and that people are not having children because they do not want to,” writes UNFPA. However, survey responses turn this perspective on its head: “ about one in five people said they will not be able to have as many children as they would like .”

Financial concerns —including housing costs, child care, and job insecurity—are the top reasons respondents cite for not having the number of children they want. Thirty-nine percent reported that financial constraints have affected or will affect their ability to have the family they want.

Then there are other causes: one in five people said that fears about the future , such as those related to climate change, wars, pandemics, have led or could lead them to have fewer children than they would like.

A gender problem

Gender equality – or rather, the lack of equality – also plays a role in this picture. First, gender roles within the family and the distribution of domestic work – especially care work – have an impact on fertility aspirations and realized parenthood. While progress towards gender equality in the public sphere has been notable in many contexts, much less has changed in the private sphere, where women remain primarily responsible for housework and caring for family members. “Women are estimated to perform three to ten times more unpaid domestic and care work than men,” the UNFPA report states.

Women, especially in high-income societies where equality in the public sphere has made greater progress, experience what is called a “ double burden ”: they are forced – unlike their male partners – to juggle paid work and unpaid domestic work . This disparity affects motherhood aspirations, with many women choosing to have fewer children to balance their professional and domestic responsibilities. Although women want to have more children, caring responsibilities often make it difficult to advance their careers, maintain full-time employment, or engage in career development opportunities. Men, on the other hand, often feel less pressure to adjust their work trajectories to meet family demands. But research suggests that partners who share household chores equally tend to have higher fertility than those in “unequally shared” families, where domestic roles are mostly performed by one partner.

Blaming women and young generations is a mistake

Political rhetoric, then, tends to blame the younger generations and women for the decline in the birth rate, accusing them of selfishness, individualism or a lack of commitment to the future of society. However, this narrative does not take into account the real structural causes that underlie the choice to have fewer children. Parenting decisions are not the result of a disinterested will, but reflect a series of complex factors, including difficulties in dealing with the cost of living, the lack of adequate support policies and a context that does not guarantee gender equality. Young generations and women should not be considered scapegoats for a phenomenon that has its roots in a system that has failed to respond to their needs and aspirations.