Nawrocki and his Putinian brothers, sons of the Soviet Union
The usual, thank you. The victory in the Polish presidential elections of Karol Nawrocki , an independent candidate supported by the far-right Law and Justice – Pis party, confirms one fact: in countries of former Soviet influence, the mix of populism, authoritarianism and nationalism always has a great appeal to the population . Little known, a political neophyte, Narowcki joins the list of heads of state or government represented by illiberal parties. Of course, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico stand out in Hungary and Slovakia, but with them there are also leaders who have been defeated so far, such as the Romanian presidential candidate George Simion or Alice Weidel , who leads the AfD, the German far-right party that is growing steadily. And we must not forget Serbia , which, despite not being part of the area once held together by the Warsaw Pact, is experiencing similar events with Aleksandar Vucic .
In short, a large family, where instead of blood ties we find a common past (or similar in the Serbian case) and a strong charge of anti-Europeanism . Simplifying, we can say that populism, which is certainly not an evil that grips only Eastern Europe, on the contrary, in addition to a lack of familiarity with democracy, has its roots in economic and social intolerance and in the perceived inadequacy in addressing them by the governments that have succeeded each other since the end of communism to today.
The nationalist resurgence , on the other hand, comes above all from the suffocation of national identities perpetrated during the Cold War , but also from the multiculturalism that, with globalization, suddenly hit these countries, exacerbating existing social tensions. To all this must be added a strong anti-European rhetoric. If before joining the European Union is seen as the panacea for all ills, after the entry (or with the stalling of the integration process, as in the case of Serbia) disillusionment and discouragement take over the evaluation due to the discovery that in Brussels no one has a magic wand . Also for this reason, it is difficult to accept transfers of sovereignty to the EU, whose policies are often seen as "intrusions" in internal affairs.
Of the various names, Nawrocki is the least known. 42 years old, a former boxer, he is originally from Gdansk , the very city from which the Poles raised their voices to ask for more freedom against the Soviet yoke. He has a degree in history and was president of the Institute for National Remembrance, a research center very close to far-right circles. Very little is known about him. During the election campaign, the Polish media did everything they could to find out more and some scandals came to light – trafficking of prostitutes, fights between ultras – which he rejected, indeed he used the attacks to present himself as a martyr , along the lines of what Donald Trump did in the United States.
In Poland, the executive powers of the President of the Republic are quite limited, but the most experienced observers take it for granted that Nawrocki will obstruct the policies of the centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The latter is the big loser of the presidential elections, because his candidate lost to the one supported by the PiS, who therefore holds the office for the second consecutive term. If Nawrocki, as some would say, was not seen coming, saying PiS , in Poland, is saying a whole program. Strongly conservative, illiberal, against civil unions and abortion as well as the end of life, in the years in which he was Prime Minister PiS hindered or influenced the work of the judiciary and the press , so much so that when Tusk won the elections in 2023 his first objective was to restore the rule of law.
Viktor Orbán is the first name that comes to mind when you think of a European leader who has very little of the pro-European. The Hungarian prime minister called Nawrocki's victory "a spectacle" and said he expected a strengthening of cooperation within the Visegrad Group, the alliance between Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Populist, close to Vladimir Putin, obstructionist on Brussels' support for Ukraine, also against LGBT+ rights (he recently banned the Pride with a specious law), he has got his hands on a large part of the information system and represents a real thorn in the side of the European Union with his vetoes on sanctions against Russia . A lawyer by profession, at the helm of the country since 2010, he is a sort of idol for all the other European sovereignist leaders, from Matteo Salvini on down.
A very similar identikit is that of Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia since 2023 after having already held the office twice, from 2006 to 2010 and from 2016 to 2018. During his first term, he had to manage the economic crisis of 2008 and he did so by exploiting it to increase his popularity thanks to the refusal to impose austerity measures and by ferrying Slovakia into the Eurozone. His second term, however, ended prematurely due to the violent protests that broke out following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his girlfriend (Kuciak had claimed the existence of links between some members of Fico's government and the 'ndrangheta). Back in the saddle in the autumn of 2023, one of his first acts was to close the public radio and television and replace it with one less critical of the government . Very close to Putin, his support for Ukraine is always uncertain: before voting in favor of aid packages or sanctions, he often threatens to do the opposite, trying to blackmail Brussels in exchange for guarantees on the funds due to Slovakia or on the energy supply of his country.
Outside the EU, similar dynamics can be seen in Serbia. Although it does not share the Soviet experience with other countries, it has experienced an even more painful and violent transition from Yugoslavian socialism to the nationalist resurgence of the 1990s. Democratic stabilization has been uncertain, so much so that for Freedom House , the US NGO that has been researching and raising awareness on democracy, political freedom and human rights since 1944, Serbia is a "partially free" country . Student protests have been underway for months against the power system of Aleksandar Vučić, accused of corruption, lack of transparency and obstruction of freedom of information . Vučić is an ambiguous leader, who while trying to maintain good relations with the European Union (with which the dialogue for entry has been at a standstill for twenty years) winks at Putin.
(More) closed borders, denial of civil rights, nationalism, populism and disengagement in Ukraine when not actually favoring Putin are also the ingredients of two recipes that, for the moment, have not been successful. These are those of George Simion , who last month lost the run-off in Romania against the pro-European centrist Nicușor Dan, and ofAfD in Germany , which came in second in the elections but is now given first in the polls.
Top: Karol Nawrocki (AP Photo/Czarek Sokołowski/Associated Press/LaPresse)
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