Trump-Putin Meeting/ Sapelli: EU fanaticism could ruin everything and lead to world war
The summit between Putin and Trump is approaching, with Trump speaking via video conference today to European leaders and Zelensky
A video conference is scheduled for today between the EU leaders, the heads of state and government of some member countries (including Italy), the British Prime Minister, the President of the United States and the President of Ukraine to take stock before the meeting on Friday in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin , at the end of which Volodymyr
Zelensky was not invited to participate. "This is, after all, an essential condition for the negotiations between two of the three global superpowers to continue," commented Giulio Sapelli , professor emeritus of economic history at the University of Milan .
So, should Russia still be considered a world superpower?
Yes, it can rely not only on its natural resources, but also on remarkable diplomatic skill. I'm also convinced that unipolarity, like bipolarity or tripolarity, carries risks, but 30-plus years of history have taught us that they are infinitely less risky than those incurred with multilateralism. Returning to the meeting between Trump and Putin, I think there's a subtle underlying theme.
What is it about?
Trump brokered the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which was more advantageous for Baku, but paradoxically also benefited Russia. It's well known that Moscow has historically supported Yerevan, but militarily, the Azerbaijanis were superior to the Armenians, so things could have turned out worse. Washington also supported the end of hostilities between Congo and Rwanda, which certainly doesn't harm Russia's presence in Africa.
So, are there good chances of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine?
I don't believe this meeting will immediately lead to a peace agreement; it will likely only provide the basis for negotiations like those held in Turkey at the end of July . However, it seems to me that we're moving toward a Korean-style solution, with a ceasefire and territorial division, which will displease both Russia and Ukraine, but will put an end to the massive loss of life on both sides.
Will the EU stay out of these agreements?
The EU could play a key mediation role, perhaps by allowing Ukraine to join the Union, but not with a position that sounds aggressive towards Russia, as Kiev's entry into NATO would.
Is this what Trump will ask his interlocutors in today's video conference?
I believe Trump will ask us to avoid any statements that might offend the Russians at this stage, such as those that have distinguished French President Macron in recent years. I doubt that the fanatical EU bureaucracy will be persuaded by the possibility of fostering a peace agreement.
What if the EU actually refuses to be convinced and continues to insist on a Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territories?
As we've seen in recent months, anti-EU sentiment has grown in Russia, and a stance of strong and unwavering support for Kiev, even in the face of an opening for a ceasefire, would be viewed by Moscow as an attempted invasion. I wouldn't be surprised, therefore, if a Russian hypersonic missile fell on European soil, triggering a world war. After all, World War I also broke out over an incident that occurred in a context in which the Austro-Hungarian Empire felt threatened.
Will Trump and Putin only talk about Ukraine?
They will also discuss other topics, especially energy infrastructure. I don't think it's a coincidence that the summit is being held in Alaska, where a gas pipeline could be built to transport LNG to Asian countries. It's clear that on this project, as with others aimed at exploiting Arctic resources, the US must work in concert with Russia, which has far greater resources and expertise in that area. The Russians will present some ideas for involving China in these Arctic projects, which will dramatically leave Europe out. We'll see if Italy, which also has research projects in the area, can carve out a small niche for itself.
Will the two leaders also talk about China ?
China is a very sensitive issue. The American president is concerned about the Asian giant after its harsh and unexpected reaction to tariffs, with countermeasures that have put the United States in difficulty. Therefore, I don't think he wants to divide Moscow and Beijing, but he will certainly try to appease the Russians, as he would like to maintain a privileged relationship with them. His goal is to restore, as part of his electoral base would like, America's global role, lost partly due to the Democrats' decisions, particularly the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Is it too early to even hypothesize a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping ?
The two are in frequent contact. Major purges are underway in China's military leadership, and the country is weakened, but remains ready for war. In this context of fragile global balances, everyone is, except the EU, whose leaders are nonchalantly skating on a thin sheet of ice, almost unaware that breaking it would risk sparking a world war.
(Lorenzo Torrisi)
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