Mediobanca, Nagel's move to resist Mps: 4.9 billion in cash to shareholders in three years

MILAN – Mediobanca continues its attempt to convince investors to stay on the Piazzetta Cuccia stock and not deliver the shares to the MPS takeover bid. To do so, it has updated its business plan with estimates to 2028 to make the comparison homogeneous. Growth in the next three years will be significant, with a 20% increase in revenues to over 4.4 billion, a net profit that will touch 2 billion (1.9, +45% in the three-year period) and maximum shareholder remuneration, at 100% of the profit. 4.9 billion will be distributed in the form of dividends in three years, of which 4.5 in cash for a cumulative return in the three-year period of 30%.

Obviously, with such a distribution, the capital will decrease by one point, the Cet1 will in fact drop to 14%.

All this while maintaining "a holistic and synergic private & investment banking model between the business segments anchored to the values ​​of responsible banking , Mediobanca intends to consolidate itself as a reference bank for businesses and entrepreneurs, a partner for its employees and customers, and a valuable investment for its shareholders".

Mediobanca stand alone , therefore, because the postponement of the meeting of June 16 prevents the evaluation of the possible aggregation with Banca Generali , which however remains an objective of the group . The exchange offer of MPS will arrive first, which will presumably start in the first ten days of July and on which the board of directors of Mediobanca confirms its negative opinion. "The comparison with the MPS takeover bid highlights the absence of industrial and financial rationale and strong execution risks".

In August or early September we will know if the Mps offer has been successful or not, much will also depend on the performance of the stocks in these days. Mediobanca hopes with this update to increase its stock in order to make the discount higher and more expensive for Luigi Lovaglio, CEO of Mps, to make a relaunch to break even and offer a bonus to those who accept his offer.

Alberto Nagel, CEO of Mediobanca, stated: “The extension of the ' one brand-one culture ' plan to 2028 demonstrates how Mediobanca is able to achieve, despite a complex macroeconomic context, further solid growth in revenues, profits and profitability, aiming to achieve the best returns in the sector, associated with a low risk and execution profile as well as a significant increase in shareholder remuneration. This exciting stand-alone growth path, achieved while remaining anchored to the 'responsible banking school' rooted in the Bank's DNA, will be further enhanced by the combination with Banca Generali, an operation capable of creating a European leader in wealth management in terms of size, growth capacity and shareholder remuneration, the closing of which is expected for next October”.