MPS shines after exceeding expectations in its financial statements, while banks are under scrutiny after examining quarterly results.

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Banca MPS is shining on the Milan Stock Exchange, while the banking sector is moving at a two-speed pace. The earnings season is coming to an end, and among the sector's stocks , Mediobanca, Banca Pop Er , and Banca Pop Sondr are rising, while Banca Mediolanum Banco Bpm and Intesa Sanpaolo are losing ground. Returning to MPS, the stock is benefiting from the better-than-expected quarterly results just published and the prospect of integration with Mediobanca, which should be consolidated into the Siena-based group's balance sheet starting in the fourth quarter.

In detail, MPS reported a net profit of €474 million in the third quarter, up 16.5% from the same period in 2024 and exceeding analysts' forecasts. Profit rose to €1.366 billion in the nine-month period (€1.566 billion last year, which included a positive tax effect of €470 million). Total revenues remained stable at €3.05 billion, with net interest income falling 7.4% to €1.638 billion , offset by an increase in net commissions to €1.18 billion. Net operating income was €1.39 billion, €453 million of which was in the third quarter alone.

Jefferies calls the results " solid, with capital above expectations and a positive outlook for the 2025 dividend ." The experts note that "the 100% payout accrual is a favorable signal for the 2025 dividend compared to our more conservative estimates" and that "capital is significantly above consensus." According to Jefferies, "the bank's strength appears to be maintained, as demonstrated by the increase in deposits and total financial assets, along with an increase in the number of employees compared to the previous quarter."

Total funding—excluding Mediobanca—amounts to €204.4 billion , up €4 billion from June, while customer loans are essentially stable at €80.7 billion (€140.7 billion including Mediobanca). Group equity, including Mediobanca, amounts to €29.1 billion, up from €11.5 billion in June, thanks to the effects of the acquisition and the capital increase for the takeover bid. Equita, in its analysis, highlights " better-than-expected results, with the main surprise being the lower cost of risk and a combined CET1 ratio of 16.9%," and that "the business plan for the combined MPS-MB entity will be presented" in the first quarter of 2026, confirming the positive reading thanks to better-than-expected revenues, controlled costs, and lower loan loss provisions. Finally, Intermonte reported "better-than-expected results both operationally and in terms of the bottom line." Interest margin and commissions - they continue - are "aligned with our expectations, but with excellent QoQ trends, even if slightly down due to the movement in rates, partially offset by issues with lower rates, and the summer seasonality respectively."

CEO Luigi Lovaglio, during the call with analysts, said that thanks to the group's solidity, " we will be able to meet the 100% payout for years to come ," clarifying that this year's dividend per share will be "in line" with that decided last year. Regarding the payment of an interim dividend, "we are evaluating it and will announce it at the presentation of the business plan," he clarified. Regarding the delisting of Mediobanca, the CEO commented that "it is too early to make a decision." Gross net profit is also expected to exceed €1.6 billion in 2025.