Political polls: Meloni above 29%, a slow week for Schlein and Conte.

There's little excitement in the political polls , which show similar trends to previous surveys. Giorgia Meloni 's Brothers of Italy party gains 0.1%, reaching 29.1% .

Elly Schlein 's Democratic Party is in a doldrums, reconfirming its lead at 22.1% . Giuseppe Conte 's Five Star Movement loses 0.2% and settles at 12.3% .

Who's rising and who's falling in the political polls

Below is the data from the Political Thermometer electoral survey for True Data published on August 8, 2025. The data is compared with that released on July 25 by the same entities:

• Brothers of Italy – 29.1% (+0.1%);
• Democratic Party – 22.1% (=);
• Five Star Movement – 12.3% (-0.2%);
• Forza Italia – 8.8% (+0.1%);
• League – 8.5% (+0.1%);
• Green Left Alliance – 6.6% (+0.2%);
• Action – 3% (+0.1%);
• Italia Viva – 2.4% (=);
• +Europe – 1.8% (-0.2%);
• Sovereign Popular Democracy – 1.4% (=);
• We Moderates – 1.1% (+0.1%);
• Peace Earth Dignity – 1% (=);
• Others – 1.9% (-0.3%).

The detailed methodological note for each poll is available on the official website volontariopoliticoelettorali.it.

As of August 8, the date of publication of the poll, the coalition situation is as follows:

• center-right – 47.5%;
• center-left – 30.5%;
• Five Star Movement – 12.3%;
• Third Pole – 5.4%;
• others – 4.3%.

The situation regarding the European elections of 8 and 9 June 2024:

• center-right – 46.4%;
• center-left – 32.1%;
• Five Star Movement – 9.8%;
• Third Pole – 7.1%;
• others – 4.7%.

At the political elections of September 25, 2022:

• center-right – 43.8%;
• center-left – 26.1%;
• Five Star Movement – 15.4%;
• Third Pole – 7.8%;
• others – 6.9%.

Who would win if we voted today?

Below is a comparison between the current situation and previous political polls , collected by Supermedia/YouTrend .

The centre-right stands at 47.5% , while the previous week it received 47.3 %.

The united center-left (but without the M5S) is worth 30.5% . Seven days earlier the figure was 30%.

The broad field (PD + M5S) is worth 34.4% , several decimal points less than the 35.2% of last week.

The combined opposition would be worth a hypothetical 48.2% . The previous week, it was 48.8%, and the week before that, 49%. In theory, this would be enough to send the center-right coalition packing. In practice, however, this hypothesis doesn't hold up: the Italian opposition lacks a unifier capable of reconciling extremely heterogeneous and conflicting demands. Today, the Italian opposition remains stubbornly divided on nearly all key issues of political debate: support for Ukraine, Russian gas, support for Israel, recognition of Palestine, US tariffs, illegal immigration, justice reform, the Green Deal, European rearmament, and so on. Giorgia Meloni has no rival. And the fact that Giuseppe Conte is pushing the Five Star Movement 's growth by attempting to cannibalize Elly Schlein 's Democratic Party is a sure guarantee of peace of mind for the prime minister. The smaller parties have been excluded from the count.

Who would be left out of Parliament?

If we were to return to the polls today, the Rosatellum would prevent all small parties intending to run alone in the elections, that is, without forming electoral pacts with other parties, from entering Parliament. The current electoral law has a 3% threshold. They would be incapable of exceeding it:

• Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (2.4%);
• +Europe by Riccardo Magi (1.8%);
• Sovereign Popular Democracy of Marco Rizzo (1.4%);
• We Moderates by Maurizio Lupi (1.1%);
• Peace Earth Dignity by Michele Santoro (1%).

In the European elections, however, the threshold is 4%. If the European elections were held, Carlo Calenda's Azione (3%) would also be left out.

Abstentionism and indecision

Abstentions , undecided voters , and those who would vote blank or invalid ballots in protest are the "non-voter party." The Ipsos poll published on July 24 shows that 42.5% of the electorate currently vote non-voters. A month earlier, the figure was slightly lower (41%). In summary, the actual voter turnout is now 57.5% .

Today, excluding the lack of voting, this is the real picture of the preferences of the Italian electorate:

• Non-vote – 42.5%;
• Brothers of Italy – 16.73%;
• Democratic Party – 12.71%;
• Five Star Movement – 7.07%;
• Forza Italia – 5.06%;
• League – 4.89%;
• Green Left Alliance – 3.8%;
• Action – 1.73%;
• Italia Viva – 1.38%;
• +Europe – 1.04%;
• Sovereign Popular Democracy – 0.81%;
• We Moderates – 0.63%;
• Peace Earth Dignity – 0.58%;
• Others – 1.09%.