Tariffs and US Big Tech quarterly earnings dominate markets. In Italy, the focus is on Ilva's decarbonization.

Next week, investors will weigh the outcome of tariff negotiations between the United States and its major trading partners, particularly the EU, with the August 1 deadline looming. This will include the meeting between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump in Scotland, and a possible agreement on a 15 percent baseline tariff on most goods, including cars. It will also be the busiest week for earnings, with Microsoft , Meta , Apple , and Amazon taking center stage.

Also in the US, other names on the calendar include Boeing , PayPal, Spotify, Starbucks, Visa, Mastercard, Merck, Ford, Qualcomm, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil. In London, Shell and HSBC are expected to report earnings, as well as those of pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, which recently pledged $50 billion in investments in its US operations. In Italy, the major banks will reveal their accounts.

Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50%, as policymakers maintain a cautious stance, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Wednesday's focus will be on the FOMC's language and Governor Powell's press conference, seeking clues to the central bank's tolerance for inflation risks, especially amid signs of tariffs passing, which are pushing prices higher.

Economists warn that any hawkish emphasis on persistent inflationary pressures could unsettle markets, while dovish tones would support expectations of rate cuts by the end of the year. Remaining on the topic of monetary policy, the spotlight is also on the decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada .

Eyes are also focused on macroeconomic data, with a busy economic calendar. In the United States, anticipation is particularly high for the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP , the monthly employment report, the release of the PCE, and the ISM manufacturing PMI. In Europe, attention will also shift to preliminary GDP and inflation data for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, as well as the Chinese PMI.

Domestically, the signing of the program agreement for the full decarbonization of the former Ilva plant in Taranto is scheduled for Thursday. Enterprise Minister Adolfo Urso has convened a final meeting at the Ministry of Economic Development (MIMIT), which will be attended by representatives of the various ministries and local authorities.

Monday, July 28

- Rome: Plenary session on StMicroelectronics (Mimit, Palazzo Piacentini - 3:00 p.m.)

- Milan: EssilorLuxottica, first-half financial results (conference call at 6:30 p.m.)

- Bardonecchia (Turin): Inauguration of the second tube of the Frejus International Tunnel. Matteo Salvini, Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, will be among those attending (in the area in front of the Italian entrance to the tunnel - 12:00 p.m.)

Tuesday, July 29

- Istat: June extra-EU trade (10:00 am) - Rome: Treasury auctions six-month Treasury bills for €6.5 billion

- Turin: Stellantis, first-half results (press release at 8:00 a.m.; conference call at 2:00 p.m.) - ECB: survey on consumer inflation expectations

- Spain: GDP, second quarter, preliminary - UK: Consumer credit, June

Wednesday, July 30

- Istat: Preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter (10:00 a.m.) - Istat: Industrial and service turnover, May (11:00 a.m.)

- Istat: Second quarter contractual wages (12:00 p.m.) - Rome: 5- and 10-year BTP and CCTEU auction for a maximum amount of €9 billion (application deadline 11:00 a.m.)

- INPS: Wage Supplementation Fund - Authorized Hours 2009, June

- Rome: The Chamber's Environment and Productive Activities Committees are following up on the hearing of the Minister of the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, on the disposal of nuclear waste and the identification of areas suitable for the development of renewable energy production plants (1.45 pm) - Rome: The Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, at question time

- Rome: Carrefour Italia holds its first meeting with unions at the Mimit (Ministry of Migration) regarding its acquisition by the NewPrinces group.

- Rome: Union-Confindustria meeting at the guesthouse at 2:30 p.m.

- Intesa Sanpaolo: First Half Results (conference call at 3:00 PM) - Prada: First Half Results (conference call at 2:30 PM) - Leonardo: Conference Call (5:30 PM) - Snam: Conference Call (4:00 PM)

- Fincantieri: First Half Results (conference call at 3:00 PM)

- Generali: First-Half Results (press release at 1 p.m. and conference call at 4 p.m.)

- Germany, GDP estimate for the second quarter

- Germany: Retail Sales, June - France: GDP Estimates, Q2

- France: Consumer spending, June

- Eurozone: ACEA data for the second quarter on commercial vehicle registrations - Spain: Preliminary HICP, July

- Eurozone: GDP estimate for the second quarter

- Eurozone Economic Confidence Index, July - Eurozone Industrial, Consumer and Services Confidence, Final July

- US: New Employment, ADP Estimates, July - US: GDP, Second Quarter

- Fed: Rate Decision and Governor Powell's Press Conference. GI) - Rome, July 27 -

Thursday, July 31

- Istat: Preliminary estimate of employed and unemployed people for June (10:00 a.m.)

- Istat: Consumer prices, provisional estimate for July (11:00 a.m.) - Istat: Industrial and construction producer prices for June (12:00 p.m.)

- Rome: Senate EU Policies Committee, follow-up to the hearing of the Minister for European Affairs, the NRRP and Cohesion Policies, Tommaso Foti, on the adaptation of the internal legal system to the European one and on the latest developments in cohesion policy.

- Former Ilva: Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, convenes the final meeting to define the Program Agreement for the full decarbonization of the Taranto plant (Mimit, Palazzo Piacentini - 4:00 p.m.) - Rome: Presentation of the Tera model by the Trentino-based company Tassullo: a concrete example of environmental regeneration and controlled-impact underground development. Participants include Adolfo Urso, Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy - CDP: Board of Directors to approve the half-yearly financial report at June 30

- Enel: Half-Year Financial Report as of June 30; Mediobanca: 2024/2025 Financial Year Results; A2a: First-Half Financial Results. Speakers will include Brescia Mayor Laura Castelletti, Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala, A2a Chairman Roberto Tasca, and A2A CEO Renato Mazzoncini (4:15 p.m.)

- Ferrari: Second Quarter Financial Results (conference call at 3:00 PM)

- Japan: Retail Sales, June - Japan: Preliminary Industrial Production, June - Japan: Household Confidence, July - Japan: BOJ Meeting and Rate Decision - China: Composite PMI - Caixin, July

- China: Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI-NBS, July - Germany: Import Prices, June

- France: Preliminary HICP, July

- Germany: Change in Unemployment, July - Germany: Unemployment Rate, July - US: Weekly Jobless Claims - US: PCE and Core PCE, June

- US: Consumer Spending, June

- USA: Chicago PMI, July.

Friday, August 1st

- Istat: June retail trade (10.00 am) - Cars: the Ministry of Transport announces data on registrations for the month of July (6.00 pm) - Rome: Mef, July requirements

- ECB: Publication of the EU banking stress test based on the EBA model (6:00 p.m.)

- Spain, Manufacturing PMI, July

- Italy: Manufacturing PMI, July

- France: Manufacturing PMI, July

- Germany: Manufacturing PMI, July

- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, July

- UK: Manufacturing PMI, July

- Eurozone inflation and core inflation, July - US: nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, July - US: ISM manufacturing, July

- Japan: Final Manufacturing PMI, July - China: Manufacturing PMI - Caixin, July.