The thorns of the ECB's OK to MPS-Mediobanca

The full and apparently unconstrained authorization of the ECB for Montepaschi's takeover bid for Mediobanca actually presents a few thorns for the Sienese bank. While it is true that, contrary to expectations, a specific threshold was not required to be reached to complete the operation, it is equally true that in the event of subscriptions below 50 percent, Siena would then have to demonstrate to Frankfurt that it has de facto control of Piazzetta Cuccia, or alternatively it would have to say what it intends to do with the acquired stake in a plan to be presented within three months. Finally, again in the event that the 50 percent threshold is not exceeded, MPS would have to be able to pay for the takeover of Piazzetta Cuccia and subsequently Generali by relying exclusively on its own resources and without being able to draw, at least in the immediate future, on the DTA's treasure chest which amounts to 2.9 billion euros . This eventuality that since the takeover bid was announced, the CEO of MPS, Luigi Lovaglio, has not transparently ruled out. A final critical point would be represented by the fact that under 50 percent the synergies of the merger between MPS and Mediobanca (estimated at around 700 million) would not be generated.

How likely is it that this scenario will occur? From the recent counts that scuppered the Mediobanca meeting of June 16, the front of anti-Nagel shareholders has reached 42-43 percent of the capital. For the takeover to be a complete success, this grouping should expand by seven to eight percentage points, and those in Siena are very confident that this can happen. The belief is that when the takeover bid is launched, by mid-July, the ranks will close around the merger project between the two institutions endorsed by the Meloni government. But if, as everyone says, it is a market operation, the price offered will be decisive. MPS will always be able to play the economic recovery card to convince the reluctant shareholders of Mediobanca. For now, it is a taboo subject in Siena. In fact, it is Lovaglio's wild card to try to close the game.

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