Meloni negotiates the ReArm budget, balancing deficits and politics. She also opens the door to Step, a new flexibility tool.

The "how" remains to be seen. The political will is there, and it's mutual: Europe will help Italy increase defense spending , because this is what Rome wants, because this is what Brussels has decided. On the closing day of the Ukraine Conference, with the issue of rearmament in the background, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni received Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Economy, Productivity, Implementation, and Simplification, at Palazzo Chigi . Just the day before yesterday, he had also met with Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, who was naturally hesitant and cautious about injecting new debt. Also in the background are the tariffs and therefore the famous letter from Donald Trump, awaited by Europe (including Italy) with anxiety and concern, like the end-of-year paintings for negligent students.

The rearmament plan was born as a response to the White House's new direction, but it hinges on the Russian threat, on Europe's doorstep, a topic Latvian Dombrovskis knows well . At the end of the bilateral meeting at Palazzo Chigi, he outlined the Gadda-esque gimmick of the whole affair in a statement: "The interaction between the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and security spending." It all lies in the technical contradiction between the clause for government defense spending and the European regulation governing the steps in excessive deficit procedures (i.e., above 3 percent of GDP). Rome aims to bring it back below 3 percent by 2026, given that this year it stood at 3.3 percent. The clause proposed by the commissioner allows European Union member states to increase defense spending even if a country is in deficit . "In this case, we will adjust the deficit targets so as not to prevent Italy from adhering to the plan." Beyond the technicalities, which ultimately become essential when the numbers become tables with spending commitments, there's a slowdown coming from Palazzo Chigi. Meloni claims that the ReArm plan as it's been devised isn't convincing, as its mix of loans and flexibility risks further indebting the government. This is also because the opposition is already (metaphorically) aiming its guns at the government. Just look at the comments after the commissioner's visit. Here's Giuseppe Conte: "Meloni signs the new Stability Pact in Europe with €13 billion in annual cuts, including to healthcare, education, infrastructure, and investment, and finds herself condemned to participate in this frantic arms race," while in the country "cuts will be slashed to healthcare and education, and the tax burden will rise ever higher." Or Angelo Bonelli of AVS: "They're turning our economy into a war economy."

While these skirmishes are good for propaganda and the public eye, the reasoning of Confindustria president Emanuele Orsini had a different effect: "It's fine to exceed the Stability Pact for defense. We have exceptional companies in defense, but we shouldn't exceed it just for defense; let's not forget about industry." It's clear, then, that Meloni's path is narrow and rocky. For this reason, she discussed with the European Commissioner a new instrument that could be used to complement the €800 billion plan launched by Ursula von der Leyen. It's called "Step," and perhaps the suggestion came from Raffaele Fitto, FdI's spearhead in the Commission. "Step" is the initiative proposed by Brussels to support competitiveness and strengthen the European Union's strategic autonomy through investments in critical technologies. It currently uses resources from existing EU programs and funds and directs them toward three sectors: digital technologies and deep-tech innovation, clean and resource-efficient technologies, and biotechnology. Meloni is pushing for defense spending to move through this process. Negotiations, or rather negotiations, are wide open. Giorgetti is using the arguments of someone who holds sway: first, Italy must secure itself by dropping below the 3 percent threshold, and then other matters can be discussed. The goal is to reach the finish line this year or, at the latest, in the first half of 2026. Meloni adds political substance to the numbers: following the ReArm plan without batting an eyelid could expose the opposition, especially since six regions will be going to the polls from September onward. And all the ammunition will be available. Everything regarding tariffs is still up in the air, but European Commissioner Sefcovic, who has been negotiating for the Union with the US for months, is expected to be in Rome. All this while Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani will be in Washington with Marco Rubio.

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