Meloni studies to do it again: abolish constituencies and bonuses for winners in the new electoral law

Giorgia wants the electoral law reform. She is the one who leads the dance and she is the one who has decided the pace, in other words which law the Parliament will propose. The one to implement the electoral reform, the prime minister announced from Bruno Vespa 's Masseria, will not be the government. But it is a question of image and facade, not of substance. A group of parliamentarians is already effectively at work: Donzelli for the majority, Paganella for the League, Batilocchio for Fi, Bicchielli for Noi Moderati. On the other side, Alfieri and Fornaro for the PD, Paita and Renzi for Italia Viva are dealing with it. However, the pillars of the new law are those that the prime minister dictated and that in fact correspond to her interests.

For Meloni, the elimination of constituencies is a priority. No one can expect the opposition to give her the gift of 2022 again, when they presented themselves divided and without any agreement and gave her the triumph. In 2027, things will be different and the abstention in the constituencies, openly proposed by Dario Franceschini, is a real threat. It is true that, unlike in 1996, this time no center-left majority would emerge from the abstention, but for the center-right leader it is a small consolation. Abstention could be enough to close the game without winners and, in a scenario that in two years will probably be no less threatening than now, and perhaps even more so, parity would open the doors to yet another government of national unity. Therefore, in the upcoming ballots, the constituencies must disappear in favor of a proportional law on national constituencies. If it were up to her, Giorgia would really be in favor of returning to preferences, but this is in fact a matter left to the mediation of the parliamentarians who are dealing with it.

The second need of the Prime Minister is to prefigure the premiership that the voters will be called to ratify or reject in the next legislature. She obviously didn't put it that way. Instead, she supported the opportunity to pass a law that can be applied even in the event of the affirmation of the premiership, just to avoid the risk of having to change it again in a few years. The reality is different. The formula that Meloni has in mind is not only suitable for the premiership: it is preparatory. It serves to accustom the voters to the declared direct election, to the logic by which those who are directly elected can automatically count on a robust parliamentary majority and also serves to secure the majority constraint. Therefore, indication of the premier and majority bonus. The initial idea was to bring the winners directly to 50%, as long as they exceed the 40% threshold. In this way, however, the risk of an exorbitant bonus, of 15%, would exist and the Consulta has already expressed itself against such an eventuality.

The obstacle can be circumvented by raising the threshold to 45%, although this would not be a truly painless change for the leader of FdI : with a threshold of 40% she would have a reasonable chance of making it even without one of the two allied parties, by raising the bar to 45% she will need both. The biggest obstacle, however, is that the national majority bonus for the Senate is out of the question. The majority pretends not to know this, pretends to be able to find a way out that, however, does not exist. Without further amendments to the Charter, the Senate is elected on a regional scale and the regional one should also be the bonus. It was precisely by challenging this rule that Ciampi had ordered the modification of the Calderoli law in 2006 and it was precisely that modification, imposed by the Constitution, that had made the law the famous Porcellum. It is likely that Meloni intends to go ahead anyway. She believes that in any case the elimination of the constituencies and the “dress rehearsal” of her premiership will be to her advantage.

Also because the obligation to indicate the prime minister, not coincidentally very unwelcome to the Nazarene, will force the main opposition parties, PD and M5S, to immediately address a problem that they would much prefer to postpone, if necessary, until after the vote. Conte has already chosen to cement the electoral alliance with PD and AVS. From that point of view, Elly has nothing to fear. However, he has not at all resigned himself to making Schlein the candidate for prime minister. From this point of view, however, Elly has everything to fear and it is clear that the leader of the right is comfortable and pleased that the unpleasant issue emerges before the vote.

FROM

David Romoli