Tariffs and GDP: The Trump Effect on Italy: Minister Giorgetti's Concerns

Italy is watching the Trump administration's trade moves with growing concern. The announcement of new tariffs could have significant repercussions for our country as well. The alarm was raised by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, who highlighted a far from reassuring economic outlook.

Exports, employment, and prices: what's Italy really at risk?

In addition to the government's concerns, detailed estimates are emerging regarding the potential impact of the US-EU trade agreement. According to Svimez , the introduction of 15% tariffs could reduce Italian GDP by up to €6.3 billion and impact exports by over €8.6 billion , especially in the pharmaceutical, mechanical, and agri-food sectors.

Southern Italy and Lombardy are among the hardest hit , with thousands of jobs at risk. Codacons , for its part, also warns of a possible domino effect on consumer prices: rising import costs could weigh up to €4.2 billion annually on Italian household budgets , with repercussions on inflation and the ECB's monetary policy.

Meanwhile, while some categories of goods—such as jeans, cosmetics, and some foods—will remain exempt from European countermeasures, other sectors risk significant price increases. Negotiations between Brussels and Washington, however, are still ongoing, and many crucial issues, particularly in the agri-food sector, remain unresolved.

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warned of the potential impact of new trade tariffs between the United States and the European Union on Italy. Responding to question time in the Chamber of Deputies, he explained that the 15% tariffs introduced by Washington could have a maximum negative impact of half a percentage point on GDP by 2026, followed by a possible recovery. However, Giorgetti also confirmed the 0.6% growth forecast for 2025, already included in the government's planning documents.

Giorgetti also clarified that the so-called web tax was not part of the agreement reached in Scotland between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and remains an open issue at the European level.