US tariffs, Meloni's unfounded enthusiasm: "We risk losing 20 billion in exports and 118 thousand jobs"

On US duties against the European Union, and therefore Italy, the risk is to arrive at a head-on collision with very serious repercussions for national economies. In fact, there is no agreement between the parties and US President Donald Trump has returned to threatening: " I will not grant exemptions after July 9. I will write letters to many countries", his last words.

With the ultimatum expiring a few days before it begins, and therefore a "trade war" between the two sides of the Atlantic, it is difficult to reach an armistice: there is still some hope, with the trip scheduled for Tuesday by the European Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic , who will fly to Washington tomorrow to meet with Jemieson Greer , the US representative for trade, but not Howard Lutnick , the Secretary of Commerce, the counterpart of the EU envoy.

And Italy? In this context, the Meloni government has fallen into line with the German government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz , the European leader most willing to reach an agreement with Trump on asymmetric duties, essentially an enormous concession to the tycoon: on the other side of the fence at the continental level, there is President Emmanuel Macron , who leads that part of the EU that does not want to be crushed by Washington's positions, which in addition to duties also asks Europe for increased purchases of American liquid gas and weapons produced in the USA.

Yet from the world of production and economics here in these hours, close to the expiration of the exemption, voices are being raised that should worry Palazzo Chigi. In particular that of Emanuele Orsini, president of Confindustria , who underlines to Corriere della Sera that with the duties imposed by Trump " we risk losing 20 billion in exports and 118 thousand jobs ".

Duties that are anything but sustainable, explains the number one of the industrialists, denying the apparent calm of the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the Ministers of Economy and Economic Development Giorgetti and Urso . “We represent the reality correctly: here we are not talking about duties of 10% but of 23.5 . In fact, we must also take into account the devaluation of the dollar, equal to 13.5% since Trump took office. A product that a year ago an Italian company sold in the US for 100 today costs our American customer 123”, explains Orsini. Who then underlines a second problem: “Italy does not only export luxury products, with a demand that is not very sensitive to price: we export above all machinery, means of transport, leather goods… we cannot simplify too much”.

Adding to the burden is Giampaolo Galli , scientific director of the Observatory on Public Accounts at Cattolica, who in an interview with Repubblica explains how US tariffs will cost Italian companies ten times the current level and that for this reason he does not understand "the enthusiasm of Prime Minister Meloni and ministers Giorgetti and now also Urso, for the agreement on 10% tariffs".

Galli explains that with US duties at 10 percent there would be a " heavy penalty , as demonstrated by the simulations of the think-tanks. The Ispi calculates that with duties at 10% Italy will lose 0.1% of GDP, and we are talking about a country that will grow, says Istat, by 0.6%. Of course, duties at 50% would wipe out the entire growth, and similar amounts are also being discussed for the EU".