Von Der Leyen saved (reluctantly) by the socialists, Meloni disengages

Ursula von der Leyen is safe, and not even the most reckless gambler would have risked a bet against her. Because the motion of censure —presented by the Romanian Conservative Group member Piperea , which would have forced the European Commission President to resign—would have required a two-thirds yes vote for approval, and that was never a realistic possibility.

But it's also true that the president's victory is almost the only prediction confirmed by the Strasbourg vote. The PSE arrived on the eve of the vote promising to abstain. It failed to do so, and on Wednesday evening, at a Eurogroup meeting, the Socialists and Democrats returned to the fold. However, despite 34 dissents, parliamentarians—while not supporting the motion of censure—refrained from supporting it. On the other hand, the FdI, the strongest Conservative delegation, decided not to participate in the vote, while until the last moment, voting against the motion, that is, in favor of Ursula, was a given. It's likely, however, that if the Socialists had actually abstained, the Italians would have voted. Overall, the Conservatives were split in two: some delegations, such as the Italian one, abstained from voting. Others, such as the Romanians and Poles, supported the motion of censure. In the end, Ursula received 360 votes in her favor , 10 fewer than she had been elected with and one less than an absolute majority. The motion received 175 votes, from the radical right, the Italian Five Star Movement , and a portion of the Conservatives.

The Socialists' U-turn was painful. Some delegations tried to insist on abstention, but for the majority, and especially for the Italians, the possibility of being seen as anti-European and allied with the right was too much. The president herself, after all, had astutely put it this way: "Either with me or with the pro-Russian right." But the change of heart does nothing to heal the wound, and the discontent within the PES group is higher than ever. Also because, again on Wednesday evening, the EPP voted with the right against the urgent procedure for the vote on the new climate target. The Socialists voted with heavy hearts and determined to fight for the September recovery. They didn't even rule out a highly unlikely motion of censure, which, one can bet, will never come. What is certain, however, is that the PES will press the threat of voting against the European budget (it has already secured the recovery of the €100 billion social fund), which had been eliminated, and will also land some blows in the budget vote. But these are consolation prizes: the rightward shift of Europe and the Commission itself has not been slowed, much less stopped.

FdI seizes on the misunderstanding: " When we said we wouldn't vote on the motion of censure, we didn't mean we would vote against it. We had three options: vote against the motion, abstain, or be absent from the chamber. We chose the latter." What the Brothers don't say is why they kept their choice in the balance until the last minute, then opting for the third option. In reality, it's the prime minister's usual game plan, which, it must be said, has always worked for her so far. Staying in the middle as much as possible, without making any moves unless absolutely necessary. Without the Socialist vote, Italian support would have been inevitable, because otherwise the president, whom Giorgia rightly considers a friend and ally, would have formally emerged standing but reduced to a lame duck. The PSE vote saved the Italians from their predicament, and at that point voting alongside the Socialists against the rest of the right would have been counterproductive for Meloni 's modus operandi.

But yesterday's result is actually a green light for the EPP 's policies and Ursula herself. The threat of the radical right and internal divisions are paralyzing the Socialists and Democrats, as we saw yesterday, forcing them into the thankless role of water-carriers for a party with a relative majority, the EPP, and for a Commission president who consider their true allies, not themselves, but the right, provided they are not suspected of Putinism.

FROM

David Romoli