2026 World Cup Qualifiers, what Italy needs: rules, schedule and play-offs

Italy, in their debut World Cup qualifiers for Canada-Mexico-USA 2026, lost 3-0 in Oslo at the home of their rival for first place in Group I, Norway , now leading the group with a full score of 9 points from 3 games, the result of victories in Moldova (5-0) and in Debrecen, on neutral ground, against Israel (4-2). For the Azzurri, the path now becomes decidedly more complicated.

How the qualifiers work

The standings, after the defeat of the Azzurri in Oslo, behind the leaders Norway (9 points in 3 games), see Estonia and Israel tied (3 points in 2 games) and then behind Italy (0 points) and Moldova (0 points in 2 games). The first of the group goes directly to the World Cup while the second will go to the play-offs together with the other 11 second-placed teams from the other groups and the 4 winners of the Nations League groups . In the event that some of them have already qualified for the World Cup, the remaining ones will be fished out from the general ranking of the Nations League 2024-25 where Italy currently occupies 5th place . Therefore, the Azzurri will most likely be left with the hope of the play-offs, a trap that has cost them dearly on the last two occasions: we have missed the last two editions of the World Cup after the defeats against Sweden and North Macedonia . Therefore, Italy will go to the play-offs if it finishes second in its group or if at least one of the big teams (Spain, Germany, Portugal and France) wins its group or goes to the play-offs as second.

What does the regulation provide?

In the event of two or more teams having the same number of points in the ranking, the rules state that the following will be taken into account in sequence when drawing up the ranking order:

1) the overall goal difference2) the highest number of goals scored, with the same goal difference3) the highest number of points obtained in direct clashes between the teams involved4) the goal difference in direct clashes between the teams involved5) the highest number of goals scored in direct clashes between the teams involved6) the highest number of goals scored away from home in direct clashes between the teams involved7) the disciplinary conduct of the team taking into account the following table:

a) -1 point for each yellow cardb) -3 points for each second yellow card that leads to an indirect red cardc) -4 for each direct red cardd) -5 for each yellow card that immediately turns into a direct red card N.B.: whoever receives a red card for an accumulation of warnings will get -3 and not -4 given by the sum of -1 (for the first warning) and -3 (for the second).

8) In the event of a continuing tie after all 7 of the above criteria, a draw will be held.

The schedule of the Italian group

Saturday 22 March • Moldova - Norway 0-5• Israel - Estonia (in Debrecen) 2-1

Tuesday 25 March • Moldova - Estonia 2-3• Israel - Norway (in Debrecen) 2-4

Friday 6 June • Estonia - Israel (8.45pm)• Norway - Italy (8.45pm)

Monday 9 June • Estonia - Norway (8.45pm)• Italy - Moldova (8.45pm, in Reggio Emilia)

Friday 5 September • Moldova - Israel (8.45pm)• Italy - Estonia (8.45pm, in Bergamo)

Monday, September 8 • Israel - Italy (8:45 pm, in Debrecen)

Tuesday 9 September • Norway - Moldova (8.45pm)

Saturday 11 October • Norway - Israel (6:00 pm)• Estonia - Italy (8:45 pm)

Tuesday 14 October • Estonia - Moldova (8.45pm)• Italy - Israel (8.45pm)

Thursday 13 November • Norway - Estonia (6:00 pm)• Moldova - Italy (8:45 pm)

Sunday 16 November • Israel - Moldova (8.45pm)• Italy - Norway (8.45pm)