June 2nd Long Weekend, Early Record-Breaking Summer Exodus. And For The First Time There Will Be More Foreigners

A mini-exodus for the June 2nd long weekend, in which according to some one in four Italians will move, for others even one in three Italians is the prelude to a favorable summer for the world of Italian tourism. According to the forecasts of the Centro studi turistico di Firenze for Assoturismo Confesercenti, between June and August the official accommodation facilities expect approximately 211.2 million tourist presences, with a growth of +1% compared to summer 2024.

The estimate comes from a study conducted by Cst on the portals of the main Online Travel Agencies and on a sample of 1,489 accommodation facilities, distributed between hotels and non-hotels. It is not the boom of a few years ago, but Italian tourism, despite the difficulties related to the macroeconomic framework and the competition of low-cost destinations, confirms its growth path also in the summer of 2025.

Sea and mountains at the top

Demand is mainly oriented towards seaside and mountain destinations, both growing by +1.1%. Art cities follow at +1%, while lakes and rural/hill tourism are growing more slowly (+0.7% and +0.6%), even if they are starting to benefit from a greater diversification of the offer and a progressive deseasonalization.

The areas with the most positive dynamics are the South and Islands (+1.4%) and the North West (+1.3%). The North East stands at +1%, while the Center remains stable (+0.2%), penalized by a slight drop in Italian demand. Requests from foreigners, however, are growing everywhere, with peaks in the South (+3.1%). There is also an increase in bookings in religious tourism destinations: a signal to be seized upon, after the disappointing start of the Jubilee 2025, which with the upcoming events (and the new Pope) could further amplify this segment.

The overtaking of foreigners

However, the contribution of foreign markets is proving to be increasingly crucial to sustain the growth of the sector. This is confirmed by the composition of demand: this year, foreign visitors will exceed Italian ones, a novelty for the summer season, usually dominated by domestic demand. According to CST estimates, in fact, international guests should generate approximately 107.6 million visitors (+1.5%), compared to 103.6 million Italian visitors (+0.5%). The foreign share thus reaches 51% of the total, confirming the progressive shift of the tourism axis towards international markets.

Hospitality businesses report an increase in bookings especially from European tourists, especially from Germany, France, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland and Spain. Flows from Australia and China are slightly down, however, due to the economic and geopolitical context. US demand is slowing down after a long period of growth. Hotels are recovering. From the supply point of view, this summer the hotel sector will show the best performance: +1.4% of presences in the summer quarter, thanks to a growth of +2.2% of foreign customers and +0.7% of Italian customers. A leap forward that allows it to recover lost ground compared to the non-hotel sector, for which a more contained trend is expected between June and August, with an overall +0.4% (+0.6% foreigners, +0.1% Italians), but which dominated the first five months of the year.

Messina: “Important signal from abroad”

"The data confirm the resilience of Italian tourism, capable of continuing to grow despite a complex and competitive context - says Vittorio Messina, president of Assoturismo Confesercenti -. The overtaking of foreign presences is an important signal, which testifies to the international attractiveness of our country, but also the need to strengthen Italy's positioning in the global market. Competition from low-cost destinations in the Mediterranean, especially for seaside tourism, is strong and risks weighing more and more".

For Messina, the answer "cannot be a race to the bottom on prices, but a continuous investment in the quality of the offer: not only that of the accommodation facilities, but of the entire system of hospitality, services, infrastructures, promotion and care of the territory. It would be appropriate - he adds - to also review the system of tax burdens that weigh on tourists who come to Italy, from the tourist tax to a VAT on tourism products higher than many of our competitors. Only in this way can we successfully face the challenges that await us and consolidate in a lasting way one of the most vital sectors of our economy".

The June 2nd bridge

As for the long weekend that has just begun, Assoturismo predicts a “mini-exodus” in which 80 percent of the accommodations available online are booked, with peaks of 90 percent for today, Saturday 31, for the most attractive destinations. Arrivals from abroad – more than ever a surprise, given that June 2 is not a national holiday except in the Bel Paese – are pushing in particular the cities of art and the lake areas.