Casabal: "Since last year, the Central Bank has already bought 7 billion dollars thanks to these loans"

Javier Casabal , economist and strategist at ATCAP, in a conversation with Canal E , said that debt auctions are currently being driven by a demand for short-term securities, in response to a market that is somewhat apathetic.

Following the debt swap carried out at the end of January, which extended the duration of the bonds until 2026 and 2027, the National Treasury has responded with a more conservative and short-term menu of issues. According to Casabal, this is appropriate given the current context of “market apathy” and the need to satisfy cautious demand from investors.

The dollar market and government measures

Regarding the foreign exchange market, Casabal explained that the interventions of the Central Bank, through the purchase of dollars, have been key to maintaining stability. These purchases have been favored by loans in dollars granted to the private sector, especially after the money laundering, which allows the Central Bank to increase its reserves.

" Since last year, the Central Bank has already bought 7 billion dollars thanks to these loans ," he said, noting that the dollar bond market is also being managed with caution, with issues by companies such as YPF and Banco Galicia that, when settled on the exchange market, contribute to the supply of foreign currency.

Retail investor participation

Regarding the participation of small investors in debt auctions, Casabal said that these issues are especially designed for those who have dollars in money laundering accounts and are not taking advantage of them. These investors, generally short-term, seek investments that offer a better return than keeping their dollars “yielding zero.” However, the expert pointed out that these are not securities for long-term investors, but for those who are looking for a quick way out of the inactivity of their savings.

Market trends and post-rally correction

Casabal noted that after the 2024 rally, in which Argentina's bonds and stocks experienced notable growth, the market has become more conservative. In particular, he highlighted that the rally was driven by a “normalization and stabilization trade” that has already borne fruit. However, for 2025, the scenario is different.

The market is more cautious, and investors, both local and foreign, are adopting a more reserved stance. " The risk-taking investor, who arrives early and leaves quickly, no longer finds Argentina so attractive ," said the interviewee, noting that the market is waiting for a firmer stabilization so that the long-term investor can enter with greater confidence.

Challenges for provinces and financing

On provincial financing, Casabal mentioned that some provinces, such as Neuquén, which benefits from oil royalties, have become attractive to investors due to their bonds guaranteed by these revenues. In general, he explained, the provinces are managing their finances well, adjusting both revenues and expenses. However, despite this fiscal health, provincial bonds remain less attractive compared to other, more conservative investment options.

The driver that the market expects

The interviewee referred to the main driver that investors expect to position the market again as a bull market: an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the lifting of the currency controls.

Although a robust agreement involving an injection of $10 billion was initially expected, the current situation has lowered expectations to a smaller, short-term deal.

However, Casabal stressed that the key factor that would revive the market would be confidence in long-term economic policy. " What is missing is a bridge between short- and long-term investors ," he said, pointing to the need for political and economic stability to attract long-term investments.