In Washington, the topic is fentanyl

The entry into force of tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be postponed, Donald Trump announced yesterday, at least until April 1st. This will allow the meetings that the Mexican government has begun to establish with the United States to proceed with a little less pressure.

There are very significant advances in the three main areas of the agenda: in migration, the facts show, as we saw weeks ago, when we were touring the northern and southern borders of the country, that we are in a period of great calm on the borders, with a notable decrease in migrants, in attempted illegal crossings, without caravans, even with a very low number of arrests by the Border Patrol, as acknowledged by them. The security measures implemented in the south and north of the country are working and we have the lowest migration rates in recent years.

On the trade issue, there was already a first official meeting between Marcelo Ebrard and the trade authorities of the American Union and, despite the fact that Trump 's Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick , was very arrogant (it is the style of the new administration in the White House), progress was made on different issues and, as President Sheinbaum said yesterday, there is a conviction that a new renegotiation of the T-MEC will have to be started almost immediately (perhaps converted into a bilateral agreement instead of a trilateral one, as some Washington officials are proposing). For Trump , tariffs, both in the case of Mexico and with many other countries, are an instrument of negotiation, both political and commercial.

That is why the main issue on the agenda is fentanyl. Fentanyl overdose deaths in the United States have reportedly decreased by 20% in the last year, according to a report by the NYT , but they are still very high, not the 300,000 that Trump says , but currently there must be about 80,000 deaths from overdoses per year, a wave of deaths that, unlike others, such as the crack wave in the late 80s and early 90s, does not prey on African Americans and Latinos, but, above all, on urban middle classes. That is why the deterioration of many urban areas also has a political and social impact. Areas occupied by opioid addicts have deteriorated cities such as San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, New York, but also states such as Ohio or Michigan. For this reason, the most important meeting will be the one that members of the Mexican Security Cabinet will have today in Washington with the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio , and other US officials.

Mexicans can show Rubio the solid advances in security in recent months and weeks. The blows suffered by various criminal organizations have been severe, especially for Los Chapitos, the main importers of fentanyl in the United States, and the circle around Iván Archivaldo is closing inexorably. The issue of designating these criminal groups as terrorists finally had a good response from the government when, on Tuesday, Omar García Harfuch said that, beyond the definitions, for the government, these organizations are declared as “priority objectives,” internally equating, in some way, that designation.

In the last week, eight of the main characters detained in Mexico were extradited to the United States and wanted by the American justice system, and there is no reason to believe that the government will take up the flag and demand the return of El Mayo Zambada . The Caro Quintero case and those of Z40 and Z42 are still pending since 1985.

The question is whether all this is enough. And the answer is that probably, in the short term, it will not. First, because the White House will want to see a sustained effort. That can be guaranteed. And second, because, as with everything, Trump will want to have something very tangible, beyond figures and data, to show to his public opinion: they are doing it with Gaza, with Ukraine, they are also doing it with Mexico. And they will probably want to see some coup that they can display as a banner, preferably political.

The date of the tariffs was moved to April 1st, but let us remember that before that, the hearings in Chicago of Ovidio and Joaquín Guzmán López , who are already seeking an agreement with the Prosecutor's Office, were set for the end of March, while that of El Mayo Zambada , who is threatening an agreement, if he has not already done so, is scheduled for April 22nd.

I continue to think that, in addition to everything that has been done in the area of ​​security, before any attempt is made from the north to impose any political decision, a political blow of the same magnitude as that which has been dealt to criminal groups, should be added. I have no doubt that this will also be discussed today in Washington.

By the way, attention must be paid, because of their repercussions, to the blows that have been dealt, with little publicity, to criminal groups in Chiapas, Tabasco and Michoacán, as well as to the reduction of violence in Acapulco, in addition to the strengthening of security in Chihuahua, especially on the border.