USMCA in Sight: Ebrard Announces Review for Second Half of 2025 Amid Trump Criticism and Nearshoring Expectations

Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard announced today, May 13, 2025, that the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could be brought forward to the second half of 2025, amid previous criticism from former U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexico's interest in capitalizing on nearshoring.

The future of North America's flagship trade agreement has become a central issue on the economic and political agenda, with significant implications for all three member countries.

During his participation in a forum organized by the Confederation of Employers of the Mexican Republic (COPARMEX), Secretary Marcelo Ebrard Casaubón estimated that the USMCA review process, originally scheduled for 2026, could begin in the second half of 2025. Ebrard suggested that this advance "could be convenient for us (Mexico)," as it would allow the country to have greater clarity on how the treaty will operate in relation to other regions of the world and, fundamentally, to compete more effectively with Asia.

The USMCA, which came into effect in July 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), has a review clause every six years. The anticipation of this review comes at a time when Mexico is seeking to consolidate its position as an attractive destination for supply chain relocation, a phenomenon known as nearshoring .

This announcement cannot be dissociated from recent statements by former US President Donald Trump. Just on May 6, Trump criticized Mexico and Canada's alleged non-compliance with the agreement, stating that the USMCA "has been very effective, but people have to respect it," and anticipated that it would be "renegotiated very soon." The Trump administration has consistently expressed its desire for "better trade terms" for the United States.

Mexico's position, reiterated by President Claudia Sheinbaum, has been to defend the treaty, emphasizing that the United States also needs Mexico as a trading partner.

Secretary Ebrard emphasized the "enormous opportunities" that the current situation and a strategic review of the USMCA could offer Mexico, especially in the context of nearshoring . He mentioned sectors with great potential such as semiconductor development, the manufacturing of medical instruments and equipment, and the refining of critical minerals like copper, areas where Mexico has traditionally had limited participation. To capitalize on these opportunities, Ebrard stressed the need for Mexico to dedicate itself to being "the most competitive, the most organized, the most effective."

The advancement of the review is seen by some analysts as a proactive move by Mexico to strategically position itself for a possible change in the US administration or to better align the treaty with the dynamics of nearshoring . Ebrard's insistence on regional interdependence ("the US needs Mexico" and the need to "compete with Asia") seeks to reinforce the narrative of a strategic alliance beneficial to all of North America vis-à-vis other global economic blocs.

"Reality will lead you to further integrate your region (…) you need the region, both Mexico and Canada, for different things, to be able to compete with Asia. In other words, you can't be on both tracks, but I estimate that will happen in the second half of the year (the review)." — Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy

From Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney had also previously indicated the need to make modifications to certain aspects of the trilateral agreement. At the national level, experts have commented that an early review could be key to strengthening Mexican foreign trade. COPARMEX, as the host of the forum where the announcement was made, plays a relevant role as an interlocutor for the business sector.

While an early review could generate some short-term uncertainty for investors, a successful negotiation could consolidate Mexico's economic position. However, the risk of unfavorable concessions under pressure is also present, which will require a robust negotiation strategy from the Mexican government.

Do you think advancing the USMCA review is a good strategy for Mexico? Share your analysis in the comments.

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