Milei attributed the decline in birth rates to abortion, but the decline began before legalization.

Indeed, the decline in birth rates is noticeable in the country, and Mendoza is no exception . This situation had already begun decades ago in European countries and, although slow in coming, ultimately also had an impact at the local level. Concern over the aging population and the challenges of sustaining a society under these conditions has also been a cause for concern for decades in those countries previously affected. However, the reality is that the data show that the decline in birth rates began before the passage of the law legalizing voluntary abortion in Argentina and that, according to experts, the marked decline is due to multiple factors.

Law 27.610 on Access to Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy ( IVE ) was approved by the National Congress in December 2020. The decree promulgating it was signed by the then President of the Nation, Alberto Fernández, in January 2021. At the same event, he promulgated Law 27.611, on Comprehensive Health Care and Attention during Pregnancy and Early Childhood. In short, it has been in force for four and a half years.

But statistical data show that the decline in birth rates is earlier , linked to various sociocultural variables , but in which the impact that is usually seen when economic crises occur cannot be ignored, years in which a notable decline is observed.

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The latest available data for the year ended December 31, 2023, shows that 20,051 children were born in Mendoza. This is a 44.5% drop compared to the 36,131 babies born in 2014, the last year that marked a peak in births . This is almost half the number in nine years . Previous years, the number was between 33,000 and 34,000, to put it roughly.

Data from the Directorate of Statistics and Economic Research based on records from the Department of Biostatistics show that after 2014 a sustained downward curve began , reaching 30,122 in 2018 and the following year the jump was to a notable 27,425, crossing the 30,000 mark.

Then there were 23,459 in 2020, 22,911 in 2021, 21,296 in 2022, and 20,051 in 2023. The decline in the number of children born was even greater in the years before the regulation, while in recent years it has held steady but slowed. From 2021 to 2023, it fell by 12.48%.

The fertility rate (GFR) is another metric that shows a change in trend. It refers to the average number of children per woman of childbearing age. Since 2001, it had remained more or less stable, around 2.4 to 2.5 children, but 2016 marked the beginning of a gradual decline. It went from 2.45 in 2015 to 2.26 in 2016, then 2.14 in 2017, and 2.04 in 2018. The decline continues, reaching 1.34 in 2023, practically halving in 22 years, which denotes a trend beyond the abortion legislation in 2021.

When asked about the issue, the Mendoza Ministry of Health reported that it did not have data available today regarding the number of abortions performed in the province and that it would not be able to issue an opinion on the matter this week.

The decline in the birth rate is a phenomenon affecting no Argentine province . A recent report by the organization Argentinos por la Educación (Argentineans for Education) collected data from 2014 to 2022, a period in which all jurisdictions showed a decline. Mendoza is the third with the largest decline , 41% during that period. Only Jujuy and the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires surpassed it.

According to the National Registry of Persons (Renaper), the country's crude birth rate (frequency of births per thousand inhabitants) fell by 52.8% between 1980 and 2020, before the law was passed. Likewise, the general fertility rate (GFR) decreased by 54.9% during the same period.

The world has been witnessing this phenomenon for a long time. “ Developed countries were pioneers in the decline in fertility rates since the late 19th century . This decline became more pronounced in the 1930s, with fertility increasing again after the war until it stabilized at moderate levels between 1950 and 1960,” summarizes a study by the National Population Directorate of Renaper. It adds that “developing countries recorded high (fertility) rates in the 1950s and began the transition in a heterogeneous manner in the second half of the 20th century. In the case of Argentina, the transition occurred earlier, with marked declines beginning in 1914 , although it stagnated around 1947.”

Thousands of people demonstrated in Congress in favor of legal abortion.

Thousands of people demonstrated in Congress in favor of legal abortion.

It explains that by the year 2000, most countries already had low fertility rates and argues that currently, almost all regions are below generational replacement rate , with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Generational replacement rate refers precisely to the estimated possible replacement of the older population by the younger population, a balance between births and deaths. According to experts' calculations, this implies that each woman of childbearing age should have 2.1 children.

Analyses by specialists consulted by Los Andes indicate that this situation has multiple causes, linked, among other things, to changes in cultural concepts and life plans, access to family planning, and socioeconomic issues such as crises, periods in which the decline in births is noticeable . In fact, the impact of the recent situation cannot be ignored. The lack of economic security and doubts about the future affect the decision to become a mother or father, and this has had particular weight in recent years, amid the COVID pandemic crisis and the uncertainty that has affected the country on the socioeconomic level.

Furthermore, professionals working in sexual and reproductive health warn that there is a trend toward greater family planning , driven by the growth in the supply of contraceptive methods as well as access to greater information and counseling.

Another change has to do with the fact that a preference for childlessness has become more prevalent among younger people. In fact, doctors' offices are seeing an increasing number of people under 30 undergoing surgical contraception , both tubal ligation in the case of women and vasectomy in the case of men. This is even true without having had children before.

More and more people under 30 are getting permanent contraception. More and more young people who don't have children and don't want them, even those in their early 20s, are coming to clinics. Demand is estimated to have increased by 60% in the last 5 years.

More and more people under 30 are getting permanent contraception. More and more young people who don't have children and don't want them, even those in their early 20s, are coming to clinics. Demand is estimated to have increased by 60% in the last 5 years.

Dr. Diego Santoni, a gynecologist, oncologist, and breast specialist, said that in the last five years, the number of procedures performed on minors of this age has increased by between 60 and 70%.

Likewise, the desire to become parents is postponed until later in life, which reduces the possibility of having more children. In a previous article with Los Andes, Valentina Albornoz, who was head of the Sexual and Reproductive Health program in Mendoza until a few months ago, explained: "The decision not to have children or to have fewer children is a phenomenon seen all over the world and is also related to the realization of personal projects other than motherhood or fatherhood, to evolution outside of biological time frames, that is, secondary infertility or the delayed desire to become a mother or father." In light of this, she emphasized the importance of a health system that supports these decisions.

There is another aspect to consider: due to increased information and self-care, there is a marked decrease in teenage pregnancies and pregnancies due to abuse in Mendoza. This rate has been steadily declining, in a segment where unplanned pregnancies, which may lead to the decision to terminate, are most common. In the province, the pregnancy rate in this segment has been halved in 11 years: it went from 15.6% of all pregnancies in 2011 to 7.5% in 2022.

At the same time, the deterioration in socioeconomic conditions in recent years has led to an increase in infant mortality , an indicator that had been improving significantly since the 1990s but which suffered a setback in 2024 and rose for the first time in four years. In reporting the mark of 7.5 deaths per 1,000 live births (up from 5.5 the previous year), the Mendoza Ministry of Health attributed this largely to a deepening of poverty and provided data on the increase in this indicator during periods of economic crisis.