Economic data and the game of perception

Today is a good day to understand how perceptions filter reality, and that makes us value this date differently in Mexico and the United States.

In Mexico's civic calendar, May 5th is not one of the most notable dates, because while still important, it is clearly surpassed by September 16th as the peak day of historical celebrations.

But in the United States, today is the day of greatest significance for Mexican identity. Mexican communities in California have celebrated the date since the 19th century, following the story of the Mexican Army's triumph over French troops in 1862. However, the commemoration shifted toward a celebration of Mexican heritage and culture, and from there, it took its own path.

So, perception, beyond the objectivity of Independence Day being the most important date in Mexican civil liturgy, is what really matters to the Hispanic community in the United States.

With economic data, there should be less room for perception, because it's hard, cold, objective data.

However, if anything has become clear with the current regime, it's that reality, no matter how overwhelming, doesn't matter if the goal is to support a narrative based on perception.

López Obrador's rhetorical skills and populist audacity allowed him to exploit his world of "other facts" with complete impunity. Those who understood him no longer listened to him, and his followers believed absolutely everything he said.

The regime continues, but those skills at cajoling are no longer present, so other mechanisms must be used to maintain the perception of effectiveness among political clients.

It was very important, for example, that the Mexican economy not have two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results, because it was easy to argue that this is the prerequisite for calling it a recession, even though that is not actually the case.

And that was avoided. Or rather, that was avoided by the INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography). The centralization of power, the elimination of autonomous regions, the lack of transparency, and the aforementioned need to contribute to the perception of the infallibility of the Fourth Transformation have also meant that the data must be taken with a grain of salt.

The cold, hard data of the timely GDP estimate is reduced to the perception that the economy grew, while jobs realize that the expansion was barely 0.2 percent.

But in detail, there was a quarterly contraction of -0.3% in secondary activities and a zero contraction in tertiary activities, which support 96% of the economy. Quarterly GDP was saved from the negative result by an impressive, incredible, 8.1% quarterly expansion in primary activities.

A sector that saw a decline of more than 2% last year is suddenly growing at an annual rate of 6%, with absolutely no logical explanation for an agricultural boom in Mexico; on the contrary.

The nobility of statistics would allow for some adjustments, let's say temporary ones, so that this data could help the other components and play with the perception that we're doing really well.

The primary sector fell by more than 2% last year, but suddenly grew at an annual rate of 6%, with absolutely nothing to explain the agricultural boom in Mexico.