Economic Package 2026: austerity and fiscal discipline will set the course

The Federal Government will present the 2026 Economic Package this Tuesday with a clear message: maintaining fiscal discipline. Analysts anticipate an austere budget, conditioned by limited revenue capacity and unavoidable social spending commitments.

Although spending could exceed 9.2 trillion pesos, experts warn that, in real terms, it will be lower than in previous years. The Ministry of Finance projects revenue equivalent to 22.2% of GDP, driven by increased customs revenue and increases in the IEPS tax on soft drinks and alcoholic beverages. However, economists consider this estimate optimistic.

Regarding the deficit, a level of 3% of GDP is estimated in the traditional version and up to 3.5% in the expanded version. Furthermore, inflation is anticipated between 3% and 3.5%, with an interest rate close to 6.75% and an estimated exchange rate of 19 pesos per dollar.

Although the plan projects GDP growth between 1.5 and 2.5%, the room for maneuver will be limited. The increase in social commitments reduces the ability to redirect resources toward investment or new programs.

Analysts such as James Salazar warn that the strategy seeks to consolidate the improvement in public finances, following the deterioration in the final years of the previous administration, when deficits reached historic levels.

For his part, Marco Oviedo projects an overestimated oil revenue scenario, with an expected production of 1.8 million barrels per day and a crude oil price between $55 and $60 per barrel. This estimate would allow the Treasury to expand its revenue expectations, although with risks if market conditions change.

In short, the 2026 Economic Package will be austere, with tighter budgets, but with the hope that revenue and oil will give oxygen to public finances.