JP Morgan warns of the risks of "corruption" and "political instability" for the Spanish economy.

JP Morgan has issued a warning about the risks of "corruption" to the Spanish economy. In a note published today, the American bank warns that "political instability" could impact GDP, causing a "certain slowdown." The government crisis, it believes, may have affected "consumer confidence and investment."

"We continue to describe the risks to our Spanish GDP forecast from domestic developments as balanced, as the economy has weathered political risks for some time and we already anticipate some slowdown from its strong levels ," he explains.

The key to everything lies in the "Koldo case" and its spread within the PSOE in recent days, which culminated in the UCO raiding the Ferraz headquarters to copy the emails of the resigned Santos Cerdán.

"Although Cerdán has resigned, Sánchez's attempts to manage the crisis within the PSOE appear to have been insufficient. According to reports, calls for early elections have increased, not only within the opposition but also within the PSOE," the bank said. "While an early departure [of the current government] followed by early elections is not our baseline scenario, we do not rule it out."

In their opinion, if elections were held, the most likely outcome would be a coalition of the PP and Vox, which would provide "greater stability." But not everything is ideal: "They could have a larger and more stable majority, but this would be uncertain due to the fragmentation of the political system, as some political differences between the two could generate tension ," they warn.

Even so, JP Morgan doesn't believe the blow will be excessively severe, in part because Spain has been mired in political instability for a decade now and is somewhat more accustomed to it : "Spanish politics could remain dysfunctional in the short term," but "Spain has proven resilient to political noise" throughout this time.