Nuevo León and Mexico remain attractive for FDI despite tariff tensions: Invex

Monterrey, NL. Invex-Grupo Financiero chief economist Ricardo Aguilar Abe noted that while the new reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump will have a strong impact on global trade, Mexico's economic growth is expected to be between 0 and 0.5% this year. Nevertheless, the country remains attractive for investment.

Regarding the US economy, he indicated that according to the Federal Reserve (FED), US GDP could grow 1.7% this year, although Invex forecasts growth of 0.5% to -1.0%. He commented this to IMEF Monterrey members during the conference "Economic Perspectives in the Global Environment" at the Industrial Club.

In a later interview with El Economista, Aguilar Abe mentioned that IMEF members are concerned about how the economic and trade relationship between the United States and Mexico will evolve, given the changes in tariff decisions that could continue throughout President Trump's term.

Reasons for being an attractive country for FDI

The chief economist at Invex-Grupo Financiero explained that Mexico remains an attractive investment destination because, according to rating agencies, it maintains its investment grade status due to its solid macro fundamentals, "despite the very low, or even negative, growth it could experience, according to some institutions."

He also mentioned that the economy maintains healthy finances, an autonomous central bank, and "President Sheinbaum's government is seeking to attract investment. I think that's very important."

Nuevo León, he said, is attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI) due to its proximity to the United States, as well as the commercial and business relationship it maintains with that country.

However, he emphasized that there could be a reduction in investment announcements due to uncertainty about the US president's trade policy.

Plan Mexico and investment towards other poles

Last Thursday, April 24, Federal Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard presented his six-year investment portfolio during his morning press conference. The portfolio includes 1,937 projects across all states, totaling $298 billion, representing approximately 16% of GDP.

The states of Baja California, Nuevo León, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Chihuahua stand out in terms of amount.

"Nuevo León has seen a boom in nearshoring-related investment, and I think there are opportunities. I don't think the slowing pace of expansion is a negative thing, because there are plans to develop other hubs, which is very positive; major investments have already been made in the state."

"It's probably time to start diversifying toward other regions that could have significant potential. It's good news that Nuevo León remains on the investment map," Aguilar Abe stated.

Recommendations for slowdown

The chief economist at Invex-Grupo Financiero said that "uncertainty is preventing many investors from spending, investing, or undertaking expansion projects in Mexico. We hope this situation will dissipate as the outlook becomes clearer."

Inflation is on the decline, more favorably than anticipated, and is expected to fall toward the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target, with benchmark rates expected to reach 7.5% by the end of the year.

For all the above reasons, Aguilar Abe recommended: "We must make investment decisions, and especially asset decisions, based on reliable and trustworthy information, based on sources that provide clear information, and we must take into account that any decision the United States government may make could be reversed at any moment."