Sharp drop in the dollar: traders point to the futures market and doubt the official's role

The dollar 's sudden and rapid decline generated various interpretations among traders and financial analysts. For many, the epicenter of this dynamic lies in dollar futures contracts expiring in December, where unusual movements were recorded. According to Salvador Vitelli , "December accounts for almost the entire change."

All eyes were focused on the futures market, with strikingly high volume and a sharp drop in prices. The consulting firm F2 reported that more than 4.2 million contracts were traded in the A3 segment, with a change in open interest of nearly USD 869 million. Positions as of December plummeted by as much as 9.69%, reaching 581 million IA, compared to just 95 million the previous day.

This context led many traders to suggest Central Bank intervention in the futures market, under a mechanism that would be considered within the limits authorized by the IMF . However, other analysts, such as Agustín Sueiro , considered that "the drop coincided with a sharp rise in peso-denominated bonds, suggesting a shift in foreign currency toward the carry trade."

The impact was also reflected in financial dollars: the MEP fell $46.50 (-3.6%) to close at $1,156.07, while the cash settlement fell $47.80 (-3.8%) to $1,165.40. Even the blue dollar fell $10 to $1,170, below the wholesale dollar, an unprecedented occurrence in Argentina at any time.

From the ConoSur table, Juan Martín Yanzón highlighted the day's unusual situation: "There was a lot of Rofex. Foreign banks were asking what was happening. The dollar dropped $50 for no clear reason. We didn't see any exporters or grain liquidation. We suspect some intervention, at least in the futures."

Meanwhile, the stock market had a poor day: the Merval fell 3.3% in pesos but rose 0.5% in dollars. Meanwhile, the country risk index rose 25 points to 766 points, amid a backdrop where sovereign bonds continue to show no signs of sustained recovery.

Yanzón also warned that, unlike other times when a falling dollar boosted bonds, this time there was no reaction. "They're worth the same as they were six months ago. Something about the macroeconomic situation isn't convincing foreign funds. Last year, Argentina was in fashion. Today, that trend has cooled."

Finally, it was highlighted that, despite the local noise, rates on peso-denominated instruments continue to offer high yields. Bonds such as BONCAP and LECAP bonds pay up to 2.5% monthly effective rates, consolidating the carry trade as one of the most profitable bets since January, even surpassing the returns of stocks and sovereign bonds.