Summer tariff

This week, President Donald Trump confirmed why many people call him TACO— Trump Always Chickens Out . The deadline to end the tariff pause his administration granted to countries with which he maintains a trade deficit passed on July 9. But, true to form, he granted a new extension. Now the clock is ticking toward August 1.

It seems we're already vaccinated against Trumpian volatility. Perhaps that's why the markets didn't freak out like they did on Liberation Day. Perhaps the baseline scenario on Wall Street is precisely that: TACO's, where deadlines stretch like chewing gum and threats dissolve into promises that never quite deliver.

The US government had promised "90 deals in 90 days." To date, only three have been announced: with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam. All with scant details. From my perspective, this confirms an obvious fact that, despite its obviousness, is nonetheless relevant: trade agreements are not a matter of improvisation or kitchen timers. They are complex processes, full of technical and political nuances, that cannot fit into a tweet or a post on Truth Social .

Even more so when strategic interests come into play. Many of the countries with which the United States seeks to negotiate are also allies in matters of security, defense, and the supply of critical minerals. Just look at the cases of Japan and South Korea, which Trump threatened with new tariffs (still subject to further mood adjustments). Both are key partners if Washington aims to reduce its dependence on Chinese vessels and open alternative routes for its energy industry.

Whether a TACO is a tariff or not, tariff uncertainty persists. And in this back-and-forth, macroeconomic volatility worsens and global trade becomes more expensive. If tariffs become a reality, producers will have to decide between passing the costs along the supply chain, as they have done so far, or absorbing them with lower margins. Neither option is attractive.

Trump's track record has undermined his credibility: no one considers him a reliable interlocutor. All countries offer concessions, but they know the White House could change its mind overnight. The script is familiar. And precisely for that reason, Trump could seek to write a new one. If more tariffs go into effect in August, we will be facing a new phase of trade pressure and, with it, a true summer of tariffs.

Mexico, for now, is not on the list of countries subject to this new wave. The Mexican trade calendar is different: the USMCA ties it to other rules. But it is not without risks either. With a Trump administration, any season is a roller coaster for our country. Every day brings its own shock. If it's not a financial institution accused of money laundering, it's a new restriction on livestock due to the screwworm plague or, on the Mexican side, xenophobic protests in the capital that, incidentally, did not go unnoticed by the State Department.

As a corollary, regarding the violent protest against gentrification—although legitimate in its origins—I will say that it does President Sheinbaum no favors. The topic deserves its own essay, without a doubt. But what can be pointed out right away is that chauvinistic nationalism and xenophobic slogans are alarming and deserve deep reflection. Because summers can be hot, yes, but when they boil over with intolerance, the damage can last longer than one season.