The Bank of Spain cuts its economic growth forecast by three-tenths to 2.4%.

The Governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá , announced this Monday from the Congress of Deputies the forecasts of the organization's quarterly report on the Spanish economy. The document paints a more pessimistic picture, affected by US tariff policies, which have led to a cut in the GDP growth forecast by three-tenths of a percentage point in 2025 , to 2.4%, and by one-tenth of a percentage point for 2026, to 1.8%, as a result of the lower contribution from the foreign sector.

The bank is considering the worst-case scenario: that the United States will impose 20% tariffs on the European Union —instead of the 10% it had previously projected—and that there will be reciprocity in penalties imposed on the United States by the EU government. The Bank of Spain also assumes that the Americans will not be able to close a deal with China and that the penalties for that country will also be worse than those used to date.

Escrivá referred to the difficulty of estimating the baseline scenario and the effects these measures will have on inflation. "The tariff risk has this downward impact on inflation through tariff channels, but we see a disruption in value chains and a regionalization of trade, which makes it very difficult to see any impact on inflation," the governor explained to the Lower House's Committee on Economy, Trade, and Digital Transformation .