The economic consequences of peace
The conditions of the end of the Ukrainian war may have serious economic consequences, not only for Europe but also for the rest of the world. The mistakes that the European powers made in 1919 at the Versailles Treaty cannot be repeated in any way. We must not forget that the impositions on Germany as a defeated power, which John Maynard Keynes explained so well in his essay The Economic Consequences of the Peace , were an absolute mistake. They laid the foundation for the birth of Nazism and Adolf Hitler. In other words, they were the seeds of the Second World War. A situation that could be repeated if it is decided to turn Russia into a pariah state.
The words of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell, while still in office, are causing serious concern. In his view, Russia would have to pay for the cost of rebuilding Ukraine using all confiscated Russian assets. And, of course, the economic sanctions imposed after the invasion on 22 February 2022 would have to be maintained. Such statements, which were fully supported by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are what have now led Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to say that Europe has no place at the negotiating table because it does not want peace. “I don’t know why they should be at the negotiating table if they are going to hint at some clever ideas about freezing the conflict while they themselves, as is their custom, character and habits, have in mind to continue the war.”
Dependence Europe needs Russia economically as much as Russia needs Europe, especially Germany, which is mired in a very serious economic crisis.This thesis is shared by US President Donald Trump, who has accused Ukraine of being guilty of the invasion. It is not just one of his ideas. Henry Kissinger had already written about it before he died and the now all-powerful Elon Musk then proposed a series of ideas to resolve a conflict that in his opinion could have been avoided. It is the position of an entire Administration and a party like the Republicans supported by 77 million voters.
Read also The housing bottleneck Mariano Guindal
What the US government is absolutely clear about is that it does not want to impose draconian conditions on Russia. This is why it accepts from the start that the Kremlin should keep the land it has conquered and that Ukraine should not join NATO. In addition, the US will reestablish trade relations with Russia as soon as possible. Trump's game is being played on a different board against China and he wants to avoid by all means a powerful ally like Putin.
throws himself into Xi Jin Ping's arms.
This is not the approach of the EU, which understands that a peace process that rewards the aggressor and allows an imperialist country to gain ground by force is impossible. A laudable approach but unrealistic when one has neither the military nor the economic strength to impose conditions. The fact is that the one who has lost this war has been Volodymyr Zelensky and with him the EU. Europe needs its Russian neighbour economically as much as Russia needs Europe. Especially Germany, which is mired in a very serious economic crisis because it depends on Russia for energy, needs its raw materials and its market. As if this were not enough, it should be noted that the EU does not have a common position vis-à-vis Russia. Therefore, it is most likely that Europe will end up paying for the reconstruction of Ukraine and accelerate its integration into the EU as Ursula von der Leyen has said, without asking the price that this decision would have.
Sanchez, spearheadSpanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wants to be the spearhead against the US and Russia and wants his support for Zelensky to be seen during his visit to Kyiv. He also made explicit his support for Palestine over Israel during the visit of Egyptian President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi. On the contrary, he has strengthened his relations with China, which he considers a preferred partner. Aligning himself against the US, Russia and Israel may be excessive for a country as dependent on foreign affairs as Spain.
lavanguardia
