The energy neighborhood: risks and dependencies for Spain

Attributing the blackout solely to France's actions is an overly simplistic view of a complex and multifactorial problem, but the variables of geography and regional geopolitics are always present. Its proximity to difficult neighbors—specifically France and North Africa—means Spain remains exposed to energy risks that, while indirect, are nonetheless significant. As the European energy landscape becomes increasingly interconnected, collaboration and shared responsibilities are vitally important to ensure grid stability and prevent future crises. However, geopolitical locations are immutable, and countering the influence of neighboring countries is a difficult task.

Despite attempts to diversify sources, neighboring France poses additional energy challenges for Spain. At the end of 2024, Algeria , one of Europe's main sources of gas, supplied 39% of Spain's gas imports, followed by the US as the second-largest supplier. Recent French policies in Algeria and Africa in general have had the unintended effect of impacting Spain's interests, particularly in energy security, but also in the areas of regional trade and diplomacy.

Algeria's complicated relationship with France exacerbates these problems. As a former colony, it remains a target of French policy, which is often considered neocolonialist. France's complex—and often tense—interaction with Algeria, marked by postcolonial frictions and strategic rivalry, can unwittingly foster instability that reaches Spain through migration and energy conflicts.

For example, France's endorsement of Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara in July 2024 has strained its relations with Algeria. This diplomatic rupture has led Algeria to recall its ambassador from Paris and consider halting gas sales to France, which has impacted Algeria's relations with other European countries, including Spain. Algeria already suspended trade with Spain in 2022 over a similar issue, but relations were restored in late 2024. However, the overall instability in the region resulting from France's actions could jeopardize these renewed ties and affect Spain's economic and diplomatic commitments in North Africa.

The deterioration of relations between France and Algeria has also affected cooperation on migration.

It's not just about gas; tensions could also destabilize the regional supply chain, on which Spain is heavily dependent. Spain was directly affected by Algeria's trade restrictions on French imports of wheat and other goods, as these disrupted regional trade dynamics and supply chains, resulting in increased competition or shortages in some sectors.

The deterioration of relations between France and Algeria has also affected cooperation on migration. Algeria's refusal to accept the deportation of its citizens from France complicates migration management in the region. Given Spain's proximity and the common migration challenges across the Mediterranean, these problems may have the indirect effect of increasing migratory pressure on Spain and complicating its border security operations.

But back to the energy crisis. In its drive for diversification, Spain could increasingly look eastward (to the energy-rich nations of Central Asia and Azerbaijan) to reduce its dependence and increase its resilience.

Azerbaijan, in particular, is an immediate and viable partner. It plays a key role in the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and exports gas to Europe through the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which connects to Italy. Spain could access Caspian gas by negotiating an extension or interconnection between the TAP and the Iberian Peninsula gas grid. The EU has already signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan to double gas exports by 2027, which fits perfectly with Spain's diversification goals.

Furthermore, Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have vast untapped gas reserves. For example, Turkmenistan is the fourth largest gas reserve country in the world. Although infrastructural and geopolitical obstacles make establishing direct supply routes to Europe difficult, Spain could explore collaborative frameworks within the EU to promote the construction of new gas pipelines or LNG swap agreements through Turkey or the Black Sea.

Furthermore, by leveraging Spain's considerable LNG terminal capacity (one of the highest in Europe), Madrid could import liquefied gas from Central Asia through third countries or by investing in LNG export projects on the Caspian Sea coast. Partnerships with transit countries such as Georgia and Turkey would be essential for the successful integration of Central Asian gas into Spain's energy mix.

By seeking agreements with Azerbaijan and Central Asia, Spain is not only diversifying its gas imports but also strengthening geopolitical alliances that help the EU as a whole achieve energy independence from both Russia and the instability of North Africa.

* Dr. Yevhen Mahda is a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, director of the Kyiw Institute of Global Policy