The peso sets a new record in 2025: the exchange rate closed at 18.92

The Mexican peso reached a new record high in 2025, marking an appreciation against the dollar amid the latest trade negotiations between the United States and China. According to the Bank of Mexico ( Banxico ), the exchange rate broke the 19-to-the-dollar barrier, reaching 18.92, a 0.76% increase compared to the previous day.

"It's not for nothing, but today the peso is below 19 (units)," said President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took the opportunity to announce a $2.7 billion investment by Heineken in Mexico.

Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero Base, explained that this is the peso's best level against the dollar since August 21, 2024. She detailed three key factors for this appreciation: first, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its interest rate, while the Bank of Mexico could pause its cuts; second, the optimism generated by the trade agreement between the United States and China; and third, speculation that President Donald Trump could eliminate the 50% tariff on Mexican steel and aluminum.

"How far can the peso's current appreciation go? It could reach 18.50 this year if there is no global risk aversion, if Trump eliminates tariffs on Mexico, and if the Fed cuts its interest rate, while the Bank of Mexico pauses its cuts."

Despite this recent appreciation, the expert noted that, compared to 12 months ago, the peso remains the seventh most depreciated currency, as the exchange rate was 18.57 pesos per dollar a year ago.

The peso has also benefited from the dollar's weakness, caused by doubts about Trump 's tax plan , especially regarding the increase in US debt. This plan has been the focus of a clash between Elon Musk, the world's richest man, and the Republican.

CT