The silent resilience of art
Until the beginning of the 21st century, we didn't have any figures on the global art market. It's true that until the 1990s, this industry was very regional, and except for a few artists and industry professionals who managed to internationalize, the rest were known and valued only locally, making it difficult to obtain a comprehensive view. So much so that it was believed that the functioning of these "art markets" was independent of the evolution of the global economy.
Globalization and the introduction of information and communications technologies revolutionized this market to such an extent that it changed the logic of its operation and opened up the practices of professionals on a global scale. And it was at this point that macroeconomic variables began to play a key role in the industry as a whole. To analyze its dynamics, only one fundamental aspect was missing: real figures. There were none. Beyond a few record sales results from the two major auction houses, no economist monitored, with a global view, the parameters of what was happening. Consequently, no one could reliably gauge what economic phase it was in. The complaint that this market was opaque in its figures and opaque in its operations could not be more legitimate.
With the turn of the century and the aforementioned globalization, a revolution came with the help of an Irish economist who, commissioned first by the Tefaf fair and later by Art Basel and UBS, insisted on studying sales figures for works of art and antiques in an annual report that has become the bible for those of us dedicated to analyzing this market. Clare McAndrew, judicious and perceptive, changed the paradigm of how we analyzed the industry, closing the door to constant and unnecessary speculation.
Over the years, she has fine-tuned her aim, and today we have verified, credible figures that partially minimize the complaint of opacity and allow us to affirm that in 2024, the value of art market sales will reach $57.5 billion, which represents a significant decline compared to the previous two years. The figures from auction houses, which we now know globally have a 41% market share relative to galleries, only confirm what we pointed out earlier. The declines of the two largest, Sotheby's and Christie's, with their de facto duopoly, have been significant: the former fell by 23%, with a turnover that has remained at $6 billion, and the latter fell by 6%, closing at $5.7 billion.
Although McAndrew's detailed analysis of the variables—whether by geographic region, artistic period, sales channel, or price segment—may lead us to believe that there is not one but several art markets, what is undeniable is that the market, on a global scale, is currently experiencing a slowdown compared to its peak in 2022, when it reached $68 billion. There is no doubt that the geopolitical situation has not helped an economy that is refractory to tensions and uncertainty.
This year-over-year monitoring allows us to make many assessments today. First of all, we are in a recession. The most pessimistic even point to the bursting of a price and sales bubble that would have developed rapidly after the lockdown caused by the pandemic, the result of an overwhelming need among collectors to consume art. But without denying that we could technically be in a recession, some elements lead us to deny not only the bursting of a bubble, but the bubble itself. And the arguments that would defend this are related to other crises that the sector has suffered, as these last two years have seen the market remain active, without any significant drop in the prices of works; at auctions, the percentage of lots withdrawn has been minimal, and even when great works have appeared, they have set impressive records. There is no dispute among professionals that we are in a cooling phase, but with McAndrew's figures in hand, many analysts prefer to see it as a simple downward recalibration.
McAndrew has provided credible figures over the years that minimize the opacity of the sector.We know that this industry's behavior is cyclical, and in periods of two, three, or four years of sales increases, downward adjustments follow. And that's why we value its marked resilience. It's true that the art market hasn't been growing over the last fifteen years. Unlike the luxury industry, which is so often compared to it, it hasn't managed to increase its turnover: it fluctuates, with ups and downs of plus or minus 10%-15%, but remains stable with an average sales value of $62 billion. Year-over-year figures show us that when it suffers declines, it is able to recover quickly.
We are in a cooling phase compared to 2022, which registered 68 billionThe gallery sector, but also the auction sector, demonstrates an unwavering ability to adapt to the economic circumstances it faces. Crises affect them, of course, but they don't bring them down. Their professionals are largely driven by the vocation to promote artists and the artistic world, and this is unbeatable. Therefore, despite seeking commercial success, they are aware that they fulfill a mission that supports what they love most: the defense of art with a capital A.
Art and commerce, indivisible todayThe most media-driven headlines generated by the art market always stem from the record prices achieved by some works sold at auction. These are dizzying figures. They generally evoke a speculative world of millionaire collectors, social elitism, and excessive luxury, distorting what this list should truly reveal: the artistic value of works that, by appearing on the market, define the artistic canon of their era and, due to their uniqueness, scarcity, and uniqueness, must be preserved and recognized as heritage so that, now or in the future, society as a whole can view them as a reflection of their time. Because true collectors don't confuse value with price; they are discreet, buy out of passion, with a strong commitment to history, and feel a duty to serve as custodians so that art reaches future generations. This image of elitism in the acquisition of works of art aligns poorly with what actually happens on a day-to-day basis in both galleries and auction houses. A report by Sotheby's and the consulting firm ArtTactic two years ago revealed that artworks sold for over $1 million at the three major auction houses—Christie's, Sotheby's, and Phillips—between 2018 and 2022 accounted for 74% of total sales, despite representing only 4% of the lots sold. And, as Clare McAndrew points out in her recently published report, the majority of transactions in the global art market, specifically 95%, are valued below $50,000. And to emphasize this democratic nature, she points out that 75% of transactions are under $5,000, making it the fastest-growing segment of the market, incorporating new buyers and providing a broader and more diversified sales base. This allows us to affirm that it is the one that sustains the authentic art market.
The most expensive works sold at auction
Sold at Christie's New York in November 2017 for $450.3 million
Sold at Christie's New York in May 2022 for $195 million
Sold at Christie's New York in May 2015 for $179.4 million
Sold at Christie's New York in November 2015 for $170.4 million
Sold at Sotheby's New York in May 2018 for $157.2 million
Sold at Christie's New York in November 2022 for $149 million
Sold at Christie's New York in November 2013 for $142.4 million
Sold at Christie's New York in May 2015 for $141.3 million
Sold at Poly International Auction Beijing in December 2017 for $140.8 million
Sold at Sotheby's New York in November 2023 for $139.3 million
Sold at Christie's New York in November 2022 for $137.7 million
Sold at Christie's New York in November 2024 for $121 million
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