Total suspense: no one knows if Argentina will meet the first goals of the new agreement with the IMF.

With less than a month to go until the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) conducts its first review of the new agreement signed with Argentina , the national government remains silent on whether or not it will meet one of its key goals: reserve accumulation. If Argentina passes the IMF test, the international organization will grant the Central Bank $2 billion.

Finance Secretary Pablo Quirno refrained from providing clear definitions to the press at a financial sector event. When asked about the fulfillment of the commitments made to the organization, he maintained that the Executive Branch does not make "future predictions" and affirmed that the economic program is not limited solely to the reserves target, but is "much more comprehensive."

While doubts grow, the government is focusing on showing that it is meeting other goals. One of the main ones is the fiscal surplus, which, according to Quirno himself, is even exceeding the IMF's requirements. The economic team hopes to close 2025 with a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP, higher than the 1.3% agreed upon with the Fund.

One of the alternatives the government is considering to raise foreign currency without resorting to the foreign exchange market is the issuance of peso-denominated bonds that can be subscribed with dollars. This week, the Ministry of Finance expects to raise at least $1 billion with a new issue under Argentine law. However, the agreement with the IMF itself indicates that the first $1.5 billion obtained through this means in 2025 should not be counted as part of the reserves .

The outlook is further complicated by the fact that it has not yet been determined whether the dollars received through this tender will remain in the Treasury's coffers or go directly to the Central Bank's reserves. The lack of clarity on this matter fuels uncertainty about the country's ability to meet its international obligations. Given this scenario, speculation is growing about a possible waiver request (a formal exemption) by the government from the IMF.

Quirno also hinted that the government is confident that the country risk will continue to decline and that it is not yet time to return to the capital markets with force.

The lack of certainty regarding the fulfillment of the IMF targets, coupled with the strategy of not intervening in the foreign exchange market, is causing concern in various sectors. Meanwhile, the Executive branch is struggling to sustain a narrative of economic success based on fiscal adjustment and an upturn in certain indicators, although it has not resolved one of the main structural problems of the Argentine economy: the shortage of dollars.