Trade negotiations between the United States and Vietnam are advancing, and there is a risk for two of Argentina's top dollar-earning products.

The Argentine economy, heavily dependent on its agro-industrial exports, could face a new front of tension on the international stage. Within the framework of bilateral negotiations between the United States and Vietnam, progress is being made on agreements that could change the trade landscape in Southeast Asia , a key market for Argentine products such as corn and soybean meal.

Vietnam, one of the main targets of Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy, is desperately seeking to avoid the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US that would reach 46%. With a growth model based on industrial exports, especially to its main trading partner, North America, the Asian country has initiated official efforts to balance its trade balance, according to a report by the Rosario Stock Exchange.

In this context, the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture reported that, following an official visit to the United States, Vietnamese companies signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with American companies to import agricultural products worth up to US$2 billion . The first tranche includes deals worth US$800 million over five years, covering purchases of wheat, corn, DDG (ethanol byproduct used in animal feed), and soybean meal.

According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Argentina is the main supplier of corn and soybean meal to Vietnam , with a majority share exceeding 50% and 65% respectively, in terms of average value between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the US share in the same period does not exceed 5% in either of the two items, according to the analysis by the Rosario Stock Exchange.

Vietnam's importance to Argentina is equally significant. According to figures from INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census), in the last five years, that country generated 17% of Argentine corn export revenue and 15% of soybean meal revenue . Combining both products, Vietnam represented an annual average of US$2.67 billion in national exports, making it the largest individual destination, with 16% of the total.

Other Asian countries that have been targets of US trade pressure, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea, also occupy prominent positions as Argentine export destinations, with shares of 6.8%, 6.1%, and 5.4% respectively. All of them have begun negotiations with the US, which could further open them up to the North American agricultural market.