Between chainsaws and tantrums, Trump and Musk gift China the space race.

At Christmas 2008, Elon Musk was on the verge of a nervous breakdown: his bank account was covered in cobwebs, and his companies—rocket and electric cars—still hadn't taken off. But then he received a call that made him tremble: "I couldn't even hold the phone. I just blurted out, 'I love you guys!'" It was NASA, which had just saved him from bankruptcy with a $1.6 billion public contract to make twelve round-trip flights to the International Space Station (ISS). At that very moment, Musk changed his computer password to "ilovenasa" (I love NASA). Almost two decades later, the United States is entirely dependent on SpaceX, the company that received that contract, which would put $22 billion in public money at risk if it broke with the administration.

The US has no viable or immediate alternative to Musk's contracts for orbital access for Defense , astronaut rotation on the ISS, plans to reach the Moon, or the launch of scientific satellites and planetary missions. It would be an economic and geostrategic disaster: such is the mutual dependence between the company and the country that no one believes they can ever break it, despite the heated exchange between Musk and Donald Trump this Thursday. The president assured that he would save billions if he canceled his contracts with Musk, and Musk responded that SpaceX would immediately withdraw its Dragon ships from service, the only way for the US to put people in space (a $5 billion contract). The only attempt at competition in that field was Boeing's Starliner, which had a failure on its debut flight and left two astronauts stranded there for months .

The South African tycoon's rocket company is so strategic that Steve Bannon—who was also Trump's favorite advisor until his fall from grace —has asked the president to "confiscate SpaceX." A full-fledged Chavista expropriation , to which Musk responded with, "Bannon is a retarded communist." But beyond the popcorn we ate while watching the theatrical fights in MAGA territory , Musk had to pull the plug after a while: "Okay, we will not be decommissioning the Dragon capsule." The tycoon published this rectification on his social network in response to an anonymous user with few followers , which gives the true extent of the bluff. But the volatile situation following this beef between the leaders of the populist right has a clear winner: China.

The space race between the two powers is similar in importance to that of the Cold War, but there's one essential difference: the US keeps putting obstacles in its own way. Kennedy said they chose to go to the Moon because it was difficult; Trump now insists on making it difficult. The White House's proposed budget for NASA begins by expressly stating that it is focused "on beating China in the conquest of the Moon and putting the first human on Mars." That budget—which will have to be fought for in the legislative chambers—adds $7 billion to reach the satellite, but represents a 25% cut in the agency's coffers, which will have to lay off thousands of workers. It is the smallest budget for the US space agency since 1961 , when the race was set to begin. A fact that has allowed Musk to boast that SpaceX's revenue now exceeds NASA's total budget. From "I love you" (after saving his life) to condescension.

But even before Thursday's Twitter spat, Musk and Trump were rolling out the red carpet for China in space. The Asian powerhouse continues its steady and unerring march, working its way toward landing taikonauts on the Moon before 2030, perhaps in 2029. NASA keeps pushing back the date for astronauts' arrival on the satellite, which in an optimistic scenario would be 2028 (although they're still selling 2027). But the spacecraft that's supposed to carry them, Musk's Starship, has already had three disappointing explosions during its test flights. "NASA is screwed," says insiders . "The budget is catastrophic for US leadership in science," says one agency veteran . "On paper, we win," says a former agency boss , "in robotic missions and in progress toward a lunar base, the Chinese win."

And to all this is added the human factor: President Trump shot down Jared Isaacman's nomination to lead NASA on the very same day Musk severed ties with his administration, May 30. Many analysts point out that only Isaacman, a friend and client of Musk's , could have stopped unnecessary axe-pointing in the budget debate in the chambers and steer a battered NASA toward its goal of beating the Chinese to the Moon and Mars. After Isaacman's fall (who had the support of Democrats and Republicans), the space agency has accumulated months and months without anyone at the helm, just when it most needs a helmsman who knows how to navigate these troubled waters. The Chinese continue to land— and return —robotic probes on lunar soil and already have plans to collect samples on Mars. Meanwhile, since 1972, the US has only landed one small private probe on the Moon, and Trump is canceling robotic missions to Mars, the best training before daring to embark on human crews. Between snipping and bickering, Trump and Musk have seriously shaken American leadership in the new space race they are waging against the Chinese program, which has been as stable as it has been successful so far.