How hot will this summer be in Spain?
After a rainy spring in Spain, a heatwave in late May pushed temperatures to record levels for the time of year, and the mercury is now above 30C in much of the country. So what's in store for the rest of the season and how hot is it expected to be?
Forecasts from Spain’s meteorological experts indicate that we are entering yet another record-breaking summer.
Spain’s national weather agency Aemet has said that between June 1st and August 31st, the conditions point to the fact that it will be hotter than usual across the whole country.
The Mediterranean coast and the islands stand out as the areas most likely to see above-average temperatures during this time.
Aemet meteorologists indicate that during next three months, 60 percent of temperatures will be above normal in most of the peninsula, and 70 percent of temperatures will be hotter than usual in the Mediterranean area and the archipelagos.
To reach these conclusions, experts at the national meteorology body have created hundreds of mathematical models based on thousands of factors, such as air and ocean temperatures and ambient humidity. From there, a rough outline of what the weather will be like over the coming months is provided, based on trends from each region.
This year, the models have predicted that there is a 60 percent chance that it will be hotter than usual, a 30 percent chance that it will be in line with expectations, and a 10 percent chance that it will be colder than normal.
Currently, Aemet is using the average recorded data between 1991 and 2020 as its reference period. This means that everything points to this summer being warmer compared to the average of the last thirty years. It will also be above the usual values of the 1960s, which is when meteorological records officially began in Spain.
READ ALSO: Seven places to escape the heat in Madrid
While it will be much warmer than normal, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will break all the records, however, or that it will be more extreme than the summer of 2022, which remains the hottest ever recorded in Spain.
A a whole, 2023 was the second hottest year since records began while 2024 was the third hottest.
It's worth noting though that in 2023, during the months of June, July and August 2023, 552 temperature records were broken across Spain for average, maximum and minimum temperatures, according to a study carried out by weather website eltiempo.es.
And in 2024, heat records for April were broken, which saw summer-like temperatures in spring. This year, we have already seen a record-breaking May as mainland Spain experienced its hottest ever May 30th, with the average temperature surpassing 24C, according to Aemet.
Experts indicate this is all likely due to climate change and global warming where summers are starting earlier than usual and reaching increasingly higher temperatures, causing more extreme heatwaves and lasting longer than normal too.
The World Meteorological Organisation estimates that this trend will continue for at least the next five years, when new temperature records are expected to be broken across the planet.
READ ALSO: Eight cooler places to escape the heat in Spain's Andalusia
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