Amid tensions with the CGT, the national government will seek to open a channel of dialogue at the ILO.

The conflict between the government and the CGT over wage caps remains latent, although it has not yet erupted . Meanwhile, a window of opportunity has opened: the annual conference of the International Labor Organization (ILO), to be held in June in Switzerland, will be the venue chosen by the Ministry of Labor to show a sign of dialogue. There, Julio Cordero will seek to meet with Martín Rappallini of the UIA (Union of Workers' Unions), and Gerardo Martínez , one of the CGT leaders with the best connections to the business world and multilateral organizations.

The official intention is to show that, despite internal tensions, there is a willingness to advance a common agenda for labor modernization, even in a context where much of the union community is wary of President Javier Milei 's plans. But the Executive branch knows that, without building a minimum of agreements, the profound changes it seeks in the labor market will not be feasible.

The point of maximum tension today is the collective bargaining agreement between the Commerce Union. The union, led by Armando Cavalieri, signed an agreement with quarterly increases that exceed the 1% monthly limit established by the Ministry of Economy, and the Ministry of Labor warned that it will not be approved. Even so, employers confirmed that they will pay the amount, while the union asserts that it will not back down.

Officials expect that, as the weeks go by, the union itself will be forced to review its position. The strategy is to let the conflict cool down and then negotiate on other terms. Cavalieri's entourage, however, affirms that they will resist pressure from the executive branch and will not accept modifying the signed agreement.

The dispute has political impact: it is the first collective bargaining agreement to directly challenge the official salary structure. And its resolution will set the tone for the coming months in the relationship between the government and the unions.

The CGT has not yet called a new general strike, but internal pressure is growing for a strike. For now, the focus remains sectoral: each union is pursuing its own demands, and some are analyzing strategies to maintain the wage increase without openly breaking with the executive branch.

One of the avenues they are exploring is agreeing to monthly or bimonthly increases instead of quarterly ones, although they know the government will not approve these variations for fear that they will fuel inflationary expectations. At the same time, unions such as the Food Industry Association have already convened delegate plenary sessions and are announcing marches to reject "the trampled collective bargaining agreements."

In this climate, the internal politics of the unions also play a role. The FOETRA Buenos Aires election showed how militant sectors exert pressure from below. Claudio Marín , close to Kirchnerism, won with 69% of the vote against Trotskyist lists. In August, it will be the turn of the Health Ministry, where Héctor Daer will seek reelection.

The government hasn't given up on the idea of ​​reforming Argentina's labor system. The Minister of Deregulation, Federico Sturzenegger , proposed this week that collective bargaining agreements could be negotiated by region, which would allow increases to be adjusted according to local production conditions.

"Argentina has a single salary system for the entire country, and this imposes rigidities that limit job growth," he told business leaders at CICYP. The ruling party believes that some of these changes can be implemented without amending laws, but admits that without the support of at least part of the union movement, it will be difficult to move forward.

In this context, Cordero is committed to opening an alternative path. The meeting in Geneva with Rappallini and Martínez will attempt to establish a minimum space for tripartite dialogue. It's a long road, but one that could serve to unblock resistance and even isolate the most hardline sectors of the CGT.

Those at the Casa Rosada believe that if the Libertarians win this Sunday in the City of Buenos Aires, Milei will emerge strengthened and with the political leeway to move forward without concessions. Such a scenario could accelerate the onslaught against traditional unionism, including the submission of new labor bills to Congress.

But in the meantime, the priority is to keep inflation low and avoid social conflict that would complicate stability. The ruling party is balancing that balance: maintaining firmness with the unions without burning all bridges. The ILO could become the ideal stage to showcase this game of pincers.