Retirements, the Libra scandal, and the threat from governors: the agenda Congress is using to corner Milei.

The government faces months of turbulence until the October elections, as the opposition in Congress seeks to advance a list of projects that could complicate the economic plans of Javier Milei 's administration and also incur political costs.

As Clarín reported, the Casa Rosada is aware that Kirchnerism will take advantage of the House of Representatives and the Senate to shake the fiscal surplus that the President so protects. This trend was accentuated after the court upheld Cristina Kirchner's conviction in the Vialidad case.

This Tuesday, Peronism gave its first signal in the Senate by forcing a committee chaired by the ruling party to move forward with the pension increase , which provides for a 16.4% increase in monthly income for those earning the minimum wage and a 7.2% increase for those earning more.

The ruling party wants to delay the process by keeping the Budget Committee, through which the proposal must pass, closed, but the opposition is preparing to fight back and would have the support to force a ruling that would allow the issue to reach the floor.

The pension increase for retirees has a cost equivalent to 0.7% of GDP, and Javier Milei has already announced that if the Senate approves it, he will veto it . But the question is whether he will have the third of the votes he managed to secure in the House of Representatives to ratify the Casa Rosada's decision, since the approval of one of the two chambers is required to make it final.

Another issue causing tension with the government is the declaration of a disability emergency, which, according to the Congressional Budget Office, will have a fiscal cost of between 0.22 and 0.42 points of GDP.

This initiative, like the increase for pensioners, already has half approval from the Chamber of Deputies, and the non-K opposition in the Senate has already demanded that the plenary session of the committees be convened for this Thursday with the intention of issuing a ruling , according to the note presented with the signatures of the radicals Martín Lousteau and Pablo Blanco, together with Guadalupe Tagliaferri (PRO) and Alejandra Vigo (Unidad Federal).

At the same time, the dissident Radicals succeeded in getting the committee to consider the university financing bills and the pediatric health emergency this Wednesday in the House of Representatives, so that it can be brought to the floor in the coming weeks. This measure aims to address the demands of the Garrahan Hospital workers.

For now, negotiations are underway to convene a session for the first week of August, although everything is a matter of possibility because the climate in the Lower House is not ideal and negotiations are increasingly tense among the opposition sectors.

The opposition's agenda also includes proposals to declare mental health promotion and financing for SMEs , which the dissident radicals are seeking to fuel with the support of Kirchnerism and the federal blocs.

Added to this is pressure from the Córdoba deputies who answer to Governor Martín Llaryora and from Santa Fe's governor, Oscar Mirabella, to lower or eliminate agricultural taxes . This move goes against the government's decision to raise taxes on soybeans and corn again to 33% and 12%, respectively.

To complete the package, the governors have already given the green light in the Senate to advance a bill to make the liquid fuel tax and National Treasury Contributions (ATN) shareable . Both initiatives have the support of all the provinces.

If the proposal, which has already been signed by the four senators of the Federal Conviction party , advances, it will mark a break in the government's relationship with the governors , who until now have tipped the balance in favor of the ruling party in the vote on key laws such as the Bases Law.

In this regard, the governors warned that if there is no agreement on the ATN and the fuel tax, the bill will be passed in both chambers with a two-thirds majority, leaving no room for Milei to veto it.

Added to this is the controversy generated by the ruling by the United States court ordering payment for the lawsuit related to the expropriation of YPF .

Lousteau demanded a declaration from Congress to warn that a judge in the United States "cannot demand that another country modify a law because she issued a ruling." His fellow member of the bloc, Maximiliano Abad, moved forward with the presentation of a draft declaration in the Senate, defending Argentina's interests in light of the New York court's ruling.

Strictly speaking, he is asking for the sovereign immunity arising from Article 10 of Law 26.741, which regulates the expropriation of YPF SA shares, to be ratified. Miguel Angel Pichetto conveyed something similar in the Chamber of Deputies.

Another issue causing concern at the Casa Rosada is the commission investigating the Libra cryptocurrency scandal, which Encuentro Federal and the dissident Radicals are seeking to keep active in the Chamber of Deputies. During Wednesday's session, Martín Menem once again blocked the opposition's offensive by refusing to allow a motion proposing to amend the law that created the commission.

Since no agreement has been reached on the appointment of authorities, the commission has no immediate means of reconvening, and therefore, options are being explored to reactivate the investigation into the President's promotion of the memecoin, which reached significant peaks in value only to plummet within hours, causing millions in losses.