Spain, rearguard tourism

“Chambres, rooms, zimmer.” In the 1960s, signs offering rooms to tourists began to proliferate. They could be seen in restaurants, bars, cafes, and all kinds of businesses, even in the windows of private homes, especially in beach towns. Tourists were beginning to arrive en masse, and there weren't enough hotels and guesthouses to accommodate them. These were the first effects of the 1959 Stabilization Plan, surely the main milestone in the Spanish economy in the last century. Sixty-something years later, tourism has established itself as one of Spain's undisputed driving forces. By 2025, the ratio will be two tourists for every registered resident. The population will soon reach 50 million, and 100 million tourists are expected. What does Spain offer? Sun, sea, beautiful landscapes, good food, easy-going people (when they're not looking at their cell phones), and safety. A calm rearguard in an increasingly uncertain and turbulent world.

You may have noticed that in the Peninsula , we have a special obsession with the Stabilization Plan , promoted by the technocratic ministers of Opus Dei under the spiritual guidance of the United States government, which feared a social uprising in Spain in the late 1950s. There was barely any foreign currency left to buy oil. Franco's autarky was failing. The Americans wanted peace in the country where they had just established four important military bases (Rota, Morón de la Frontera, Torrejón de Ardoz, and Zaragoza). They wanted their bombers warning the Soviet Union to land in a country without risk of revolt. And they encouraged an emergency exit.

Currency devaluation, openness to foreign capital, and mass tourism. Invest in a low-wage country where almost everything needs to be done and where there will be no strikes, since free trade unions are prohibited. Visit a picturesque country of pristine beaches where most people have yet to emerge from the postwar period and the guards wear curious tricorn hats. 'Spain is different.' The Falangists were reluctant. Their nationalist pride was offended. They feared that so many changes would turn Spain into a Babylon difficult to control, where class struggle would soon reappear in the big cities . Tourism would bring moral corrosion. The Catholic Church also feared this. But General Franco eventually accepted. After having overcome the defeat of Hitler and Mussolini , his two major pillars of support in the 1930s, he knew that the protection of the United States was essential for the regime's survival.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund suggested that an economist trained in London and Munich, who was working in Caracas as an advisor to the Central Bank of Venezuela, the prosperous Venezuela of the 1950s, join the project. Thus, Joan Sardà Dexeus , a former Catalan republican who had been removed from politics since the end of the Civil War, would become head of research at the Bank of Spain in 1956 and one of the most prominent drafters of the stabilization plan. The circumspect Sardà, who as a young man had sympathized with the federalist wing of the Republican Left, negotiated directly with the IMF and the World Bank to obtain aid for Spain to promote its opening. And the country began to fill with tourists and signs offering "chambres, rooms, zimmer."

Let's talk about tourism with the collaboration of Santiago Fernández Muñoz , Professor of Human Geography at the Carlos III University of Madrid, who has studied this dossier in depth. Let's start with the numbers. The forecast for 2025 is spectacular: two tourists per inhabitant. Almost fifty million inhabitants and one hundred million tourists. Round figures that reflect a Spain that is changing more than it seems. In 2000, Spain received 48.2 million international tourists and the population was 40.4 million. Tourists have doubled in twenty-five years, while the population has grown by 22%. The pressure has increased, and the seams of some territories are beginning to strain. Here's another relevant figure: in August 2024, tourist accommodation beds will exceed hotel beds for the first time. 1,995,218 accommodation beds dedicated to tourism compared to 1,922,541 hotel beds. “Chambres, rooms, zimmer.”

Spain is by far the most specialized country in tourism among the major developed economies. It represents more than 13% of GDP, well above Germany, where this indicator does not reach 5%. In France, it is 7.5%. It is 7% in Italy. And less than 3% in the United States. Only Portugal comes close to Spanish figures. The Iberian Peninsula produces a lot of renewable electricity and attracts many tourists. It is not dependent on Russian gas, and Trump 's tariffs may hurt it, but not sink it. It is Europe's quiet rearguard.

We must not overlook the fact that the positive development of Iberian tourism also has a geopolitical context. Just over a decade ago, the failure of the so-called "Arab Springs" between 2012 and 2014 seriously harmed North African countries as alternative destinations. Terrorist attacks against tourists in Egypt and Tunisia , to give two examples, indirectly benefited Spain, which in turn managed to maintain competitive prices compared to France, Italy, and Greece. A safe and secure rearguard.

Tourism already represents 13% of GDP. This figure doesn't excite everyone. Tourism doesn't have a very positive image as an economic activity these days. It's often associated with low productivity, precarious employment, limited innovation, and low wages. A wave of opinion against mass tourism is growing in large cities. Tourism devours the soul of a place when it exceeds a certain proportion. Many young people feel expelled from their hometowns by rising housing costs. "Chambres, rooms, zimmer." Renting a room in Madrid is already reaching five hundred euros a month .

“Their economy is doing well. Their economy is doing well, and they don't want to pay. Spain is terrible. I'm going to force them to pay 5%.” Donald Trump said these words last Thursday, at the conclusion of the latest NATO general assembly, which was dedicated specifically to European defense spending. The reality is what it is. “Their economy is doing well.” One of the main drivers of Spanish economic growth is the strong pull of international tourism, which has not only continued to arrive in unprecedented numbers but is spending more and more, much more than before the pandemic: 37% more than in 2019, 14% after adjusting for inflation.

Our tourism specialization made us more vulnerable during the pandemic, when lockdowns eliminated the possibility of travel and made Spain the country hardest hit by the crisis and the one that took the longest to recover. However, in the current complex situation, the crisis has taken its toll on Europe's most industrialized economies, dependent on Russian gas and mature sectors with complex international supply chains, subject to the uncertainty of new geopolitics. On the contrary, tourism is growing far faster than other sectors in Spain, and another important change is compounded: exports of high-value-added non-tourism services (consulting, financial services, telecommunications, R&D, etc.) are increasing significantly, making us less vulnerable in the current climate of tariff tensions on manufacturing. Trump's tariffs do not appear to be stopping British, German, and French vacations in Spain.

“Chambers, rooms, bathroom.” There are more beds in tourist apartments than in hotels, as we mentioned earlier. There are people who are making a lot of money from these offerings, and there are people who feel severely harmed by the rise in real estate prices. Tourist rentism is becoming an offense to the population who lack access to this source of income and are struggling to pay their rent. This tension will have political consequences. But in the hotel sector, there are changes. The number of higher-quality hotels has grown. In 2000, only 23% of tourist beds were located in 5- and 4-star hotels. By 2024, high-end hotels accounted for more than 55%. The traditional concentration of tourism in the summer months is also changing, albeit slowly. Even today, the three summer months receive the majority of foreign tourists, but the spring and autumn months are increasing at a faster pace.

The other looming change is greater geographic distribution. Northern regions appear to be growing, but we shouldn't be fooled. Tourism remains heavily concentrated on the Mediterranean coast and the South Atlantic. In 2024, 2.1 million international tourists arrived in the Basque Country. Nearly 20 million arrived in Catalonia, and more than 15 million each in the Balearic and Canary Islands. In 2024, 67% of tourist demand was located in coastal destinations, from Girona to Huelva and in the Balearic and Canary Islands.

The excessive concentration of tourism in certain areas and cities is the great challenge for the future. Public discussion on this issue is gaining intensity and breadth. Discontent is spreading in the most saturated areas. The recent demonstrations in the Canary Islands against "mass tourism" are very eloquent. The local population and tourism workers cannot afford to pay the housing prices in the most attractive tourist cities. We must take the problem seriously and intervene. How many tourists are we interested in? How can the country organize itself to welcome them without completely transforming the most visited places? Let's not forget that the tourism industry is politically powerful in Spain.

The Stabilization Plan of 1959 achieved its main objectives. Franco's Spain avoided bankruptcy, and the growth of a modest middle class throughout the 1960s contributed to a gradual transition to democracy at a time when two factors weakening the dictatorship intersected: the agony and death of General Franco and the soaring inflation resulting from the 1973 oil crisis. Striking workers and student protesters accelerated the change, while sun-filled Spain acted as a buffer.

Spain is Europe's rearguard. A country that derives 13% of its wealth from tourism must be more afraid of climate change than of Trump's tariffs. In that sweltering rearguard, a very peculiar political situation is unfolding today. Santos Cerdán , the former number two of the Socialist Party, a key figure in the current legislature, has just been imprisoned on charges of corruption. This is a very serious matter for the PSOE. On the other side of the mirror, the main opposition party will face trial in a few months for the top officials of the former Ministry of the Interior, accused of using the police to protect the PP from the investigation of another serious corruption case. The far right will be the main beneficiary of this devilish dynamic. Spain, a sunburned rearguard.