The National Assembly overthrows François Bayrou's government, plunging France into political chaos.

The French Prime Minister loses the vote of confidence he himself had called by an overwhelming majority of 364 votes against and 194 in favor, leading to the fall of his entire government. He is the fourth prime minister to be ousted in just over a year and a half.

The old adage that "there are no two without three" falls far short of French politics, which for months has been stuck in a minefield that, in just over a year and a half, has brought down four governments and as many prime ministers: Elizabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, Michel Barnier... And this Monday, François Bayrou, who lost the vote of confidence that he himself had decided to submit to in the face of widespread rejection of his 2026 budget plan, which includes a painful adjustment plan of almost 44 billion to reduce debt and deficit, which in 2024 closed at 5.8%, almost double that set by Brussels.

After a heated debate, the French National Assembly yesterday denied its vote of confidence in Bayrou by a landslide , with 364 votes against and only 194 in favor (there were 25 abstentions), thus consummating what most considered a hara-kiri foretold (some parliamentarians saw this initiative as "a disguised resignation "). It did little to help the ousted prime minister warn the National Assembly that "a crisis is looming in France" and that while parliamentarians "have the power to overthrow the government, they do not have the power to erase reality."

The derailment of Bayrou, and with it that of his entire government ( the prime minister is expected to resign this Tuesday ), once again places President Emmanuel Macron at a difficult crossroads, where he will have to choose between dissolving the National Assembly and calling new elections (as demanded by both the far right and the far left), or attempting to form a fifth government , this time with a Socialist at the helm. Everything so far points in the latter direction. In fact, the leader of the Socialist group, Boris Vallaud, made it clear during his speech that "the Socialists are ready to govern ."

After the vote, the French government simply stated that President Emmanuel Macron "takes note" of Bayrou's fall and that he will appoint his successor "in the coming days," according to sources at the Elysee Palace.

But while this is happening, France is increasingly sinking into political chaos. And this represents a serious problem for the French economy, but also for Europe. France is the second-largest economy in the EU, and its perennial political turmoil could diminish its prominence in the bloc when it comes to addressing important issues such as trade and the tariff war, industrial policy, defense and security , and the ecological and technological transition, in addition to generating growing distrust in the French economy among international investors.

The fall of Bayrou, whose government has barely lasted nine months , also means the collapse of his ambitious plan for cuts to rein in the French state's high debt and deficit levels. And even if Macron manages to form a fifth government with the Socialist Party, which will not be easy given the opposition this possibility generates within his own governing coalition , especially among Republicans and the more conservative wing, this would imply a much more lax adjustment plan (the Socialists at the time proposed savings of 22 billion, half of Bayrou's), which would jeopardize the deficit reduction promised to Brussels.

With the fall of the Bayrou government, France is sinking even deeper into the depths of instability. Not only will the 2026 budget be delayed (at best), but French economic growth itself is at risk due to the growing distrust of international investors, as evidenced by the fact that major rating agencies, such as S&P and Fitch , have placed their sovereign debt ratings on negative outlook ( Moody's already downgraded its rating to AA3 last April).