The opposition is seeking to impose a pension and bonus increase in the House of Representatives, but the national government anticipates a new veto.

While Congress remained in minimal activity due to the Buenos Aires City election, the main opposition blocs accelerated negotiations to push for a special session next Wednesday in the Chamber of Deputies . The goal: to address a series of bills aimed at raising pensions and the pension bonus, an agenda the government has already announced it will not support.

The call, still informal, brings together Union for the Homeland, Encuentro Federal, Hacemos Coalición Federal, the left, and smaller sectors of the PRO (National Prosecutor's Party), and will seek to address proposals with a high fiscal impact. The ruling party reaffirmed its refusal and noted that President Javier Milei will not hesitate to resort to the presidential veto again, as occurred last year in response to a similar initiative.

One of the central issues will be the creation of a Proportional Benefit that recognizes the years of contributions, even if they don't reach the minimum of 30. There have been opinions from various groups, including the UCR, Encuentro Federal, the Civic Coalition, and a sector of the PRO (Progressive Party), although with differences in how the benefit is calculated.

Peronism is considering supporting the Federal Encounter proposal if its attempt to reinstate the pension moratorium fails. This initiative—which would allow for "buying" the remaining years—was rejected by the government in March and lacks the support of the negotiating blocs.

"Between nothing and this, we prefer this," admitted a Peronist representative on the Budget Committee. The discussion will focus on the minimum benefit. The bill drafted by Encuentro Federal, with advice from former ANSES head Diego Bossio , establishes a minimum of 80% of the Universal Pension for Older Adults (PUAM), although some sectors propose raising it directly to the PUAM.

Furthermore, there is an agreement in principle to increase pensions by 7.2% and update the pension bonus, which remains frozen at $70,000. While the Peronist party proposes raising it to $115,000 and adjusting it based on the CPI, Encuentro Federal suggests $100,000. "The difference isn't that great; we should be able to reach an agreement," asserted a legislator who favored dialogue.

The PRO and UCR parties, however, do not support either of the amendments. Meanwhile, the ruling Libertad Avanza bloc made it clear that it will vote against it and that, if approved, the president will veto the law.

Last year, Milei used that tool to block a similar measure, and, as confirmed by the Casa Rosada, there will be no hesitation if a bill that alters the path of fiscal balance is repeated. The government believes that these proposals are driven by a political intention to force decisions without budgetary responsibility.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that extending the pension moratorium for two years would entail a fiscal cost of 0.084% of GDP in the first year and 0.081% in the second, for a cumulative impact of 0.165%.

Regarding the bonus, if it were raised to $105,000 from June, the annualized expenditure would be $1.9 trillion (0.23% of GDP). If the amount were $115,000, the fiscal impact would climb to $2.5 trillion (0.30% of GDP). The Executive branch asserts that these amounts are incompatible with the current adjustment program and warns that it will not allow fiscal targets to be compromised or "politically irresponsible projects" to be endorsed.

In addition to the pension projects, the opposition will seek to advance the appointment of the chairman of the commission investigating the LIBRA case. Due to a lack of agreement, it was blocked by a tie between the ruling party and the opposition. The intention is to define that leadership in the chamber, another point that could bother the ruling party, although it will not have a direct budgetary impact.

The session has not yet been formally convened, but the blocs are working against the clock to consolidate a majority. The Casa Rosada (Presidential Palace) is closely monitoring the actions of its usual allies, especially after the elections in Buenos Aires City. Some legislators could dissent, and this would force the ruling party to redouble its use of institutional tools like the veto to sustain its economic program.