What the polls say one month before the elections: Libertarian lead, but narrower

One month before the national legislative elections , scheduled for Sunday, October 26, the latest polls show a fight in motion and what seemed like a foregone victory for La Libertad Avanza , today has an open ending .

Clarín obtained access to six nationwide studies conducted after the Buenos Aires elections , in which Peronism crushed the government and changed the political landscape. Most analysts believe the ruling party is in the lead , but with a narrower lead .

On average, while during the first half of the year most polling firms predicted a victory of between 8 and 10 points in favor of the Libertarians, they now give them a lead of between 3 and 4 points, at the limit of the margin of error. And some pollsters directly put Fuerza Patria ahead.

The surveys this newspaper has seen in recent weeks are from the consulting firms RDT , Atlas Intel , Trends , Universidad de San Andrés , Zuban Córdoba , and Casa Tres . The first four presented a classic table of voting intentions by alliance ; the last two, however, asked a more general question : Will you vote for or against the Government/Milei?

Polls agree that, for now, a polarization remains between La Libertad Avanza and Fuerza Patria, with the remaining parties fighting for a seat in a province.

The "governor's coalition," which is running in key districts under the banner of United Provinces (and as United Citizens in Buenos Aires City), is currently holding steady. The other libertarian, radical, Macri, and left-wing options are also trailing, always in the single digits .

One exception is the United Provinces proposal led by Juan Schiaretti in Córdoba. The former governor is reportedly battling it out at the top with La Libertad Avanza in his province. A step below is Massista Natalia de la Sota, and even further behind is Kirchnerist Pablo Carro.

In the national legislative elections, votes will be held to renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate. The government's decline in numbers also tempered expectations : if at the beginning of the year they dreamed of approaching a majority that would allow them (with allies) to push through sensible reform projects, now they are content with forming a third that would be enough to sustain vetoes .

This is no small change: since taking office, Javier Milei has announced that he would use the second half of his term to implement important second-generation reforms , such as fiscal, labor, and pension reforms. His weakness in Congress, where he has racked up more than 40 consecutive votes against the government , raises doubts.

However, in favor of the government, it is the party that is expected to grow the most since it has few seats at stake : less than a dozen in the House of Representatives and none in the Senate. Fuerza Patria, meanwhile, which had expected to lose significant weight in Congress, is hoping for a smaller loss after the victory in Buenos Aires.

These speculations are largely based on what these latest polls have been showing.

1) Atlas Intel , a Brazilian firm that had been making good predictions in Argentina but stumbled badly in the provinces on September 7 , has La Libertad Avanza ahead with 39.8% versus Fuerza Patria's 35.6% . The ruling party's vote could even be joined by some from the PRO, which it measures separately and oscillates by three points.

2) Trends , a consulting firm that works for the private sector and with some local management, also gives the Government a four-point advantage: 42% to 38% .

3) The third poll that favors the ruling party is that of the University of San Andrés : with a high level of undecided voters (21%), it suggests a 31% to 26% in favor of the libertarians .

4) The fourth survey, by RDT Consultores , shows a technical tie, with Fuerza Patria just above: 36.4% against 35% of LLA .

The other two studies, as mentioned, asked a general question. And the results are quite different.

1) In the case of Zuban Córdoba , one of the consulting firms most critical of the national government, it states that 33.7% would vote to support Milei and 57% would do so to punish him .

2) In the case of Casa Tres , the consulting firm of Mora Jozami, an analyst very close to Macri's party, points out that 44% would vote in favor of the Government and 47% against .

One of the current debates among pollsters, especially after the surprising (and overwhelming) victory of Peronism in the Province, is what effect this precedent might have on the electorate .

The antagonistic questions are basically two : will Peronism take advantage of the momentum in Buenos Aires? Will the people rally to punish Milei and can they hope for another victory? Or, on the contrary, will the disenchanted Libertarian voters who clearly didn't vote on September 7 do so now to prevent the Ks from returning?

This last hypothesis is not ruled out by analysts such as Cristian Buttié (CB Consultora Opinión Pública) and the Isonomía duo ( Juan Germano and Pablo Knopoff ). They basically recall what happened between the PASO and the 2019 general election, when, although Macri didn't manage to overturn the result, he significantly narrowed the gap against Alberto and Cristina.

For this to happen, they explain, this year's electoral phenomenon, absenteeism, must be moderated. And for that, it's key that the government and Milei reestablish the expectation/slogan on which their administration is based : we're doing badly, but we're doing well.