Trump doesn't need Musk, his party members do

Most Republicans are scrambling to support their great leader on Thursday. As Donald Trump and Elon Musk hurl insults, accusations and threats at each other online, members of Congress immediately back the president. Tesla, SpaceX and X boss Musk may be their party’s biggest donors ever, but their loyalty does not lie with him. In the public battle of divorce, the MAGA kids ( Make America Great Again ) are choosing daddy Trump over his fiery, short-lived and volatile flame.

Musk is “ crossing a line ,” acting “ childishly and ridiculously ,” according to representatives. “Never challenge the President of the United States, Donald Trump,” House Speaker Mike Johnson warns. “He is the leader of the party. He is the most influential political figure of this generation and probably of the modern era.” One senator suggests couples therapy : “The world is a better place with the Trump-Musk bromance fully intact.” But Musk is getting little political support. Not even from members of Congress who, like him, strongly object to what Trump’s budget and tax plan does to the national debt.

One prominent politician—always online, never shy about an opinion or a war of words—remains silent for a long time: Vice President JD Vance. He jokes only about a “slow news day,” even after Musk voices support for impeaching Trump that would make Vance president. It’s not until nearly ten hours after the escalation on social media (Musk’s X and Trump’s Truth Social) that the vice president issues a statement of support for his boss, without mentioning Musk or the hysterical feud. “President Trump has done more than anyone in my lifetime to earn the trust of the movement he leads. I’m proud to stand with him,” Vance writes, on X.

Ketamine or ego?

Vance has no choice but to side with Trump. He has three and a half more years in the White House with him. He will never fulfill his ambition of being elected president himself in 2028 if Trump does not crown him his MAGA successor. But the slowness and perfunctoriness of his words show that Vance also hopes to keep billionaire Musk on his side. Like other Republicans, he fears that a permanent break with the man who poured nearly $300 million into their election campaign last November, has a giant megaphone with which to empower politicians, and offers the party a vision for the future beyond Trump’s nostalgia.

It is unclear why Musk, after leaving Washington unhappy and unsuccessfully , but without slamming doors , is still lashing out. Musk failed to make substantial cuts in the state finances with his pseudo-Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since his successful bet on Trump last year, his political instincts have proven to be worthless; interference in both Wisconsin and Germany has yielded no results. His companies are suffering from his political alliance. Does Musk really fear an American bankruptcy and does he think he can stop the only bill crucial to Republicans? Has his ketamine use made him self-destructive? Or is this purely the ego of a man who unexpectedly does not get his way?

It is uncertain whether the two will resolve their dispute. The president did not seem to be up for a conversation with "the man who has lost his mind" on Friday. He would like to sell the red Tesla he bought during a shameless PR stunt in the garden of the White House. But nothing is final.

What is certain is that Trump can do more to Musk than the other way around. The billionaire could face drug charges, lose billions in government contracts for his companies, and possibly even be deported. He has more to lose.

Dangerous primaries

For Trump, the feud with Musk is not directly problematic. The president thrives on conflict. Some of his supporters applaud the way he does not let himself be swayed by the party donor. Senators who are inclined to vote against his " One Big, Beautiful tax plan" (including money for defense, deportations and cuts in health insurance for the poor) can no longer do so without siding with Musk.

Trump, despite his speculation about an – unconstitutional – third term, will never have to run an expensive election campaign again. For most party members, every donation remains welcome and the commitment of 'techbros' to the Republican brand remains relevant. Some Democrats are flirting with the idea of ​​​​embracing Musk again , after all, he was a progressive longer than a conservative.

That makes Musk dangerous to Republicans. It is not possible to prove whether he helped Trump win in November, or whether the president would have defeated Kamala Harris even without him. But in 'smaller' elections, such as the 2026 midterms and especially the primaries before that, Musk's money could be decisive. He has threatened to fund rival candidates of members of Congress who are increasing the budget deficit. Musk, who as a South African by birth cannot become president of the US, has also suggested starting a third party.

Should the Republicans lose their majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate in the midterm elections next year, Trump will also be in trouble. He will be unable to introduce legislation in his second year and will likely face another impeachment . Ultimately, neither the richest man nor the most powerful man has any interest in a long and definitive fight.