France: Prime Minister Bayrou signs pact with Le Pen

The noose is tightening around the minority government of centrist François Bayrou . Since it took office in December, it has relied solely on a liberal centrist bloc that is far from a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly. It has had to fight for survival at the cost of presidents for the radical left and far right. But that strategy seems to be reaching its limits.

On Tuesday, at the initiative of the Socialist Party, parliament was preparing to vote on a vote of no confidence in Bayrou's team. It was expected that the government would survive it, but only because the prime minister promised Marine Le Pen to put the change to the electoral law to a vote. The current two-round majority system would be replaced by a proportional system. The head of government proposes that the voting districts correspond to the departments, of which there are 101 in France. It is not clear whether a minimum threshold for individual parties to enter parliament would be introduced, as is the case in Poland or Germany (at the level of 5%).

Proportional Elections: National Union Will Gain the Most

If such a system were applied, instead of 139 deputies, the National Rally would now have 192 deputies. The Gaullist Republicans would also gain (instead of 48, they would have 62 deputies) – Le Pen's potential allies. The alliance of left-wing groups (New Popular Front), on the other hand, would have significantly fewer deputies (162 instead of 192). The liberal-centrist bloc associated with Emmanuel Macron would also lose out significantly (116 instead of 163 deputies).

Despite this, not only Bayrou, but the president himself support such a solution. In the history of the Fifth Republic, proportional representation has only been used once (in 1986). It was introduced by François Mitterrand, who wanted to promote the far right (then known as the National Front) and prevent the moderate, Gaullist right from gaining a majority.

Today, however, the situation is completely different. Majority voting was supposed to be a stabilizing element of the political system. This is how the creator of the current French system, Charles de Gaulle, saw it. Except that for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic, elections last summer have resulted in the creation of three more or less equal blocs that do not want to cooperate with each other, and at the same time, none of them is able to gain a majority. This causes the country to drift: there is no possibility of carrying out any serious reforms. Both Bayrou and Macron hope that the proportional system will force the parties to build coalitions, as is the case in Germany.

Bayrou wants the new law to be put to a vote at the turn of this year and next. He hopes that this way he will keep the far right in check when it comes to voting on the 2026 budget earlier. The prime minister wants to include around 40 billion euros in savings in this financial law to start healing the accounts of the country, which is in debt up to its ears. For the populist, far right (as well as the radical left), however, this is hard to swallow.

Le Pen is not only in favor of returning to the 1986 electoral system, but also wants a system that would promote the largest groups (such an electoral system based on the d'Hondt system is in force in Poland, among others). However, the leader of the far right is ready to accept Bayrou's proposal. Outside the central bloc, the leader of the New Popular Front, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is also in favor of this, although he is betting on much larger constituencies corresponding to French regions.

– The majority of deputies want to switch to proportional representation, Bayrou said.

The Republican Front has halted Le Pen's march to power

Such a systemic revolution, however, is not without risk for traditional political forces. In 2024, Le Pen's path to power was stopped by the creation of the so-called Republican Front: in the second round of elections, all opponents of the far right voted for the one candidate who had the best chance of defeating the National Rally. After the change in the electoral system, this would no longer be possible.

Proportional voting is also opposed by smaller groups that currently support the government coalition. This is primarily the case with the Republicans, heirs of Gaullism. Their new leader, the extremely conservative Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, has announced that if the new agreement is implemented, he will leave the government. Bayrou's team would then have even weaker support in parliament.

But the game is also played on another level. According to the constitution, Macron can dissolve parliament, but only one year after the previous election. He will therefore gain such an opportunity on July 9. This is another means of pressure on Le Pen. The leader of the far-right was convicted of embezzling European Parliament subsidies and was deprived of the passive voting rights for five years. Until this period has elapsed, she will not be able to run for a new mandate in the National Assembly if she loses her current one as a result of the dissolution of parliament. Only a higher court will decide in the spring of next year whether she will be released from this sentence and will also be able to run for the Elysée Palace.

Until then, she will have to play poker: if proportional representation comes into force, her chances of building a majority coalition and becoming prime minister (which the court ruling allows her to do) increase. However, if the National Rally does not win enough deputies in the early elections, Le Pen is at risk of political oblivion: she will no longer even be a deputy.